Macau gaming operator MGM China is expected to be the largest market-share gainer among Macau’s 6 casino operators in the 2Q25, according to a recent investment memo from Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
The gaming operator is projected to gain 0.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to reach approximately 16.8 percent market share during the period.
Galaxy Entertainment is expected to be the 2nd-largest market-share gainer, with an estimated increase of 0.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to reach 20.3 percent. In contrast, SJM Holdings is forecast to lose the most market share among the 6 operators, dropping 1.4 percentage points to 12.3 percent. The remaining 3 operators are expected to experience market share changes of less than 0.5 percentage points.
The analysis comes as Macau’s gaming sector continues to recover from previous disruptions. The region generated total gross gaming revenue of MOP61.12 billion ($7.58 billion) in the quarter, representing 8 percent year-over-year growth and 6 percent quarter-over-quarter growth. This marked the highest quarterly gross gaming revenue since reopening, reaching MOP672 million ($83.2 million) per day on average.
Despite the positive gross gaming revenue growth, industry EBITDA growth is expected to be more modest at 3 percent year-over-year, reaching $2.045 billion. The analysts attribute this discrepancy to an ‘unfavorable revenue mix’ caused by well-publicized concerts that attracted both Premium Mass players and direct VIP players. The increased VIP segment participation is expected to drive industry EBITDA margins down by 60 basis points to 27.3 percent.
Citigroup has opened 30-day upside catalyst watches on both Melco and Galaxy Entertainment, citing their expected strong year-over-year EBITDA improvements. Melco’s 2025 adjusted property EBITDA is forecast to increase 12 percent year-over-year to $338 million, attributed to the ‘early success from the reopening of House of Dancing Water at City of Dreams and its cost discipline.’
The analysts have raised target prices across their Macau coverage universe by an average of 9 percent, with Melco receiving the most significant increase from $8.60 to $11. Meanwhile, both Wynn Macau and Wynn Resorts were downgraded from Buy to Neutral ratings, as analysts expect Wynn to be a ‘near-term market share donor in Macau.’
