SJM Holdings was unable to fully offset the loss of gross gaming revenue (GGR) from its former satellite casinos in the first quarter of 2026, according to a Thursday note from Seaport Research, which said the operator’s market share continued to decline despite gains at its self-promoted casinos.
Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky indicated that SJM’s overall Macau market share fell to 9.6 percent in the first quarter, down 390 basis points year-on-year and 80 basis points quarter-on-quarter, as contributions from the satellite casinos — which accounted for 5.1 percent market share in the prior-year quarter — disappeared following their closure.
SJM reported first-quarter revenue of HK$5.9 billion ($754 million), down 21.1 percent year-on-year and 9.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined 4.3 percent year-on-year to HK$917 million ($117 million), although this exceeded Seaport’s estimates and came in slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations.
Seaport identified SJM’s other self-promoted casinos as the ‘one bright spot‘ during the quarter, with market share rising to 3.9 percent, up around 150 basis points both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.
The gains were attributed largely to the acquisition of the L’Arc satellite casino and the expansion of Casino Lisboa. The segment represented 54 percent of SJM’s EBITDA in the quarter, slightly more than Grand Lisboa, according to the report.
Even so, Seaport said much of the GGR previously generated by the satellite casinos had been dispersed across the broader Macau market, limiting SJM’s ability to fully recover the lost share through its self-promoted properties.
The brokerage said it expects SJM’s market share to remain in the ‘~10% range‘ this year. It also added that April ‘was off to a rough start,‘ estimating that SJM’s market share declined further from first-quarter levels.
GLP ramp-up remains ‘unimpressive’
Seaport said the ramp-up at Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP) remains a key driver of SJM’s long-term growth prospects, but described the property’s performance as ‘anemic.‘
According to the report, GLP achieved only 2.7 percent market share in the first quarter, compared with 2.8 percent a year earlier and 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. Seaport said it does not expect GLP to surpass 3 percent market share this year.
‘Our concern is that GLP share may be hitting a ceiling in the low 3% range, unless there is a material change in strategy and execution,’ Umansky wrote.
The brokerage added that GLP would need to more aggressively target the premium mass segment in order to materially improve its Cotai market position, while noting that the property currently lacks a strong ability to do so.
GLP generated HK$1.75 billion ($224 million) in GGR during the quarter, up 11.7 percent year-on-year and 13 percent quarter-on-quarter. However, adjusted EBITDA fell 61.1 percent year-on-year to HK$58 million ($7.4 million), with EBITDA margin declining to 2.8 percent from 7.7 percent a year earlier.
