The ratings agency Fitch forecasts Macau’s growth will remain strong at about 15 percent in 2024, supported by the assumption of further recovery in gaming tourism this year.
According to its latest commentary, Fitch has affirmed Macau’s rating at ‘AA’ with a Stable Outlook. The agency also assumes that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will further recover to about 79.5 percent of the 2019 level this year from 62.6 percent in 2023.
As the city’s economy rebounded sharply by 80.5 percent in 2023 after a 21.4 percent contraction in 2022.
‘We expect the economic and gaming outlook to be bolstered by a further rise in inbound tourism and gaming operators’ non-gaming investments as part of their mandate over their decade-long concession term through 2033,’ it noted.
Fitch also anticipates Macau’s recovery momentum will be underpinned by the expansion of the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) to cover more mainland Chinese cities and the government’s promotion of various mega events to meet shifting Chinese consumer preferences.
However, it also indicates that a sharper slowdown in China is a key downside risk to Macau’s economic and gaming recovery prospects.
The Macau gaming industry has witnessed an impressive start to 2024, with its GGR rising by nearly 73 percent year-over-year in the first two months of 2024, driven by the strong influx of mainland Chinese visitors during the lunar new year. Fitch expects the mass-market segment will continue to drive GGR recovery on buoyant tourist inflows.
Regarding non-gaming development, Fitch sees ‘implementation challenges remaining for the government to effectively tackle human capital constraints and skill mismatches to enhance the territory’s competitive edge in the nascent non-gaming industries’.
