MGM China further expanded its market share in Macau during the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by stable reinvestment levels and improved operational performance, according to Seaport Research.
The brokerage said MGM China’s overall gross gaming revenue (GGR) share reached 16.4 percent in the quarter, reflecting gains of nearly 70 basis points year-on-year and 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter.
Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that MGM’s Macau operations benefited from steady mass-market reinvestment, resilient demand, and improved margins, even as operating costs continued to rise. The performance helped reinforce the group’s competitive position in a crowded market environment, with analysts maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating on both MGM Resorts International and MGM China.
The report highlighted that Macau GGR rose 21 percent year-on-year to $1.1 billion in the quarter, outperforming the broader market. Property EBITDA after license fees increased 30 percent to $332 million, supported partly by favorable gaming hold in both VIP and mass segments.
Seaport said MGM’s fourth-quarter results reflected ‘robust’ execution in Macau, with mass player reinvestment as a percentage of drop remaining steady and market-wide reinvestment increases showing signs of stabilization.
Operating expenses in Macau increased 14 percent year-on-year and 13 percent quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations, leading to a property EBITDA margin of 28.6 percent, compared with 26.8 percent a year earlier.
The brokerage attributed the sustained share gains to the company’s ‘revamped marketing and operational strategy’ at its Macau properties. Seaport said MGM’s market share remained ‘significantly higher than pre-COVID levels’ and projected that, while some moderation was likely, the group’s share would probably remain in the high 15 percent range over the coming year.
The firm also noted that high-end product enhancements, including the Alpha Club and upgraded villa offerings at MGM Macau, supported continued traction on the peninsula.
Revenue expected to outpace costs in 2026
Separately, analysts at CBRE said that despite investor concerns over rising operating expenses in Macau, MGM China is well-positioned to deliver further earnings growth in 2026.
While investors remain ‘skittish about Macau’s opex escalation (across the industry)’, CBRE said it believes ‘revenue will continue to outpace costs in 2026, leading to further EBITDA growth’.
The brokerage also highlighted that MGM China’s business continued to outperform market expectations in the fourth quarter, with adjusted property EBITDA reaching $332 million, above the consensus estimate of $293 million. CBRE noted that ‘even considering lucky hold in the quarter’, the company ‘still beat the Street’.
In addition, CBRE said Macau was ‘off to a strong start in 2026’ and expected ‘continued stability in MGM China’s market share’, reflecting sustained operating momentum at the group’s properties.
Analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh added that improving financial performance in Macau, together with structural enhancements such as branding upgrades and growing contributions from BetMGM dividends, is expected to support accelerating free cash flow in the coming years. This, CBRE said, should strengthen MGM China’s financial position and provide greater flexibility for future investment and shareholder returns.
