Macau’s gross gaming revenue is forecast to increase 19 percent year-on-year in January 2026, reaching approximately MOP21.73 billion ($2.71 billion), according to a new report from Seaport Research.Â
The strong start to the year follows a weaker-than-expected December, where revenue grew 14.8 percent to MOP20.89 billion ($2.61 billion) as high rollers delayed trips into the first quarter.
Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport, noted that the month has started with significant momentum, with daily revenue potentially exceeding MOP850 million ($106 million) during the January 1st to 4th holiday weekend. The 19 percent projected growth rate is partially attributed to an ‘easy comparison’ with January 2025.
‘Macau remains a secular growth market, driven by an increasing wealth effect in China with high propensity to gamble and increasing travel spend,’ Umansky stated in the report. He emphasized that the market’s trajectory is ‘driven largely by the high-end and the need for ease of money flow from China’.
The timing of the Chinese New Year will play a critical role in the first-quarter performance. The official holiday period is scheduled for February 16th to 22nd, with February 14th and 15th falling on a weekend. Consequently, Seaport forecasts that Macau’s gaming revenue will grow over 14 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
Looking ahead at the full year, Seaport estimates a 7 percent growth rate for 2026. This expansion is expected to be supported by eased visa issuance policies and continued money flows from mainland China.
While the premium segment remains the primary engine of growth, Umansky noted that ‘any pick-up on overnight base mass will further increase growth’ and benefit operators with greater room capacity, such as Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment.
Despite recent volatility in stock prices due to geopolitical concerns, Seaport maintains a positive outlook on the sector. The firm argues that current valuations for the primary Macau operators remain ‘largely too low,’ presenting a strong risk-to-reward positioning for investors as the market continues its long-term recovery.
