Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for December came in below historical seasonal trends, with total takings of approximately $2.61 billion, marking a 90-basis-point sequential decline, or a 4.1 percent drop on a per-day basis, from November, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
In a note issued after the data release, Deutsche Bank said December GGR rose 14.8 percent year on year, but remained 8.5 percent below December 2019 levels, indicating that the market has yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic benchmarks.
The sequential per-day decline of 4.1 percent was notably weaker than historical patterns, with analyst Steven Pizzella noting that the average December-to-November sequential change between 2013 and 2019 was a 70 basis-point increase, placing the latest result around 480 basis points below trend.
The December performance followed a series of mixed comparisons against 2019 levels in preceding months. GGR in November was down 7.8 percent versus November 2019, while October and September declined 8.9 percent and 17.2 percent, respectively. Deutsche Bank said the December outturn suggests a stabilisation in recovery momentum, though at a slower pace than historical seasonality would imply.
While the year-on-year growth rate of 14.8 percent was positive, it fell short of Deutsche Bank’s recent channel checks, which indicated a 17 percent to 22 percent year-on-year growth range.
In its forward projections, Deutsche Bank maintained a constructive but measured outlook for Macau’s gaming market. The bank forecasts January GGR of approximately $2.53 billion, representing 10.9 percent year-on-year growth.
Over the longer term, Deutsche Bank projects first-quarter 2026 GGR of $8.0 billion, up 10.6 percent year on year; full-year 2026 GGR of $32.8 billion, up 5.8 percent; and 2027 GGR of $34.4 billion, implying 5.0 percent growth.
