Investment bank CLSA has increased its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, projecting 7.6 percent year-over-year growth to reach $30.1 billion, up from previous estimates.
The revised projection comes as analyst Jeffrey Kiang cited the strengthening Chinese renminbi and robust gaming performance in the second quarter of 2025.
The upgraded forecast reflects accelerated recovery assumptions, with CLSA moving its timeline for full recovery forward to 2025 from 2026. Macau gaming concessionaires are expected to deliver 6.9 percent year-over-year growth in second quarter 2025 sector EBITDA to $2.05 billion, supported by 8.3 percent yearly GGR growth.
CLSA’s analysis indicates Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China gained market share sequentially during the quarter, while Wynn Macau and SJM Holdings faced challenges defending their positions. The shift coincided with new property openings, including Sands China’s Londoner Macao Phase 2 and the Capella at Galaxy Macau, which launched in late April and early May 2025, respectively.
Galaxy’s momentum continued into June, bolstered by Jacky Cheung‘s nine-night concert series, with six performances held in June.
The Chinese renminbi strengthened against the US dollar by 1.4 percent from the beginning to the end of the second quarter 2025, providing additional support for gaming revenue.
Visitation recovery supports growth
From April to May 2025, total visitations to Macau grew 22 percent year-on-year to 6.46 million, representing 95 percent of the same-period level in 2019. The strong visitor numbers, combined with new property openings and entertainment events, contributed to sustained gaming revenue growth.
For the second quarter 2025, Macau’s GGR grew 8.3 percent year-over-year to MOP61.1 billion ($7.6 billion), with notable strength in June as daily revenue reached MOP684 million ($85 million) per day.
Forecast adjustments reflect currency strength
The analyst lifted the 2025 GGR forecast by 5.6 percent while trimming the 2026 projection by 2.2 percent. CLSA expects 2026 GGR to grow 2 percent to HK$239.7 billion ($30.7 billion) following the stronger 2025 performance.
CLSA noted that the sustainability of June‘s strong daily revenue rate remains uncertain, but believes it will be aided by the recent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar, new property openings, and entertainment events in Macau including concert performances and the return of House of Dancing Water shows at City of Dreams.
