Macau Sept. GGR misses forecast, triggering downgrades

Macau Casino Dealers

Macau gross gambling revenue for September rose 32 percent from the prior month, but was worse than expectations and triggered a further round of downgrades.

According to figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, GGR was MOP5.87 billion, up from MOP2.21 billion a year earlier and MOP4.44 billion in August. The figure is 73.4 percent below September of 2019. 

Bernstein Research said the consensus opinion amongst analysts was for GGR to be 61 percent lower than the same month prior to Covid, while its own view was for a shortfall of 70 percent. 

GGR had been recovering steadily from August, when the discovery of the first local Covid cases in more than 500 days triggered a new wave of travel restrictions. However, further cases were discovered mid-month amongst security guards working in quarantine hotels, again derailing travel. 

Deutsche Bank, which was also expecting a 70 percent decline from September 2019, has revised down its revenue estimates through to 2023.

The firm is now expecting 4Q21 GGR of $3.4 billion, down from its estimates of $3.53 billion prior to the latest DICJ figures.

For 2021, its forecast drops to $11.88 down from $12.12 billion, while for 2022 it sees GGR of $29.04 billion, down from $29.62 billion.

In 2023, the estimate is for $33.45 billion, down from $34.19 billion. This is still lower than the $36.5 billion recorded for the whole of 2019. 

By September 24th, visitor arrivals had fallen 70 percent.