Macau’s gaming industry achieved its highest recovery rate since the pandemic began in June, with gross gaming revenue reaching 88 percent of pre-COVID levels compared to 79 percent for the full year 2024 and 76 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to a research note from JP Morgan analysts DS Kim and Selina Li.
The standout performance was driven by gross gaming revenue that surged 19 percent year-over-year to MOP21.1 billion ($2.60 billion), significantly exceeding the already revised-up consensus forecast of 9 percent growth. June’s daily run-rate of MOP702 million ($87.5 million) even surpassed May’s figure of MOP684 million ($85.3 million), defying typical seasonal patterns that usually show high-single digit monthly declines.
The result is particularly impressive considering that June is typically in low season, with gross gaming revenue declining only 0.6 percent compared to May, which benefits from the Labor Day golden week holiday.
Analysts note that the strong performance was driven primarily by high-end gaming segments, particularly direct VIP and ultra-premium mass market players. JP Morgan’s on-the-ground analysis identified several key factors behind the surge.
Major entertainment events played a crucial role in offsetting weak seasonal trends. Marquee concerts featuring Jacky Cheung from June 20th to July 6th and G-Dragon from June 6th to 8th attracted high-spending patrons to the territory.
JP Morgan also mentioned that improved sentiment among wealthy customers contributed to the growth, potentially linked to positive wealth effects from rising stock markets and cryptocurrency values. The continued ramp-up of Capella Macau, Galaxy Macau’s luxury all-suite tower that soft-opened in late April, provided additional momentum for the ultra-high-end segment.
Currency movements also supported the results, with the Chinese yuan’s appreciation against the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar making gambling more affordable for mainland Chinese visitors.
The strong June performance capped an exceptional second quarter for Macau’s gaming industry. Each month from April through June beat both historical seasonal patterns and analyst consensus, producing the highest quarterly gross gaming revenue in over five years at MOP61 billion ($7.6 billion), representing eight percent year-over-year growth.
Both VIP and mass market segments outperformed seasonal expectations during the quarter. JP Morgan estimates VIP revenue grew ten percent quarter-over-quarter and 12 percent year-over-year, while mass market revenue increased five percent quarterly and eight percent annually.
Compared to pre-pandemic levels, second quarter gross gaming revenue reached 83 percent of 2019’s second quarter performance, up from 77 percent for full year 2024 and 76 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Mass market and slot revenue achieved over 120 percent recovery rates, while VIP reached 25 percent of pre-COVID levels.
The analysts project industry EBITDA will recover 2-4 percent both quarterly and annually, reaching 83 to 85 percent of pre-pandemic levels compared to 79 percent in the first quarter. However, EBITDA growth may lag behind revenue growth due to a shift toward high-end segments and increased promotional spending for premium customers.
JP Morgan believes the second quarter will mark the first period in an extended timeframe to exceed both market forecasts and historical seasonal patterns, potentially reversing the negative consensus momentum that has persisted for over 18 months.
While acknowledging that some moderation from June’s exceptional growth is inevitable, the analysts remain optimistic about the second half performance, suggesting gross gaming revenue could grow in the high-single digits rather than their previously forecasted 5 percent increase.
