January’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau “fell short of expectations”, amounting to MOP18.25 billion ($2.27 billion), a decrease of 5.6 percent year-on-year, Seaport Research Partners noted.
The figures reflect a marginal increase of 0.3 percent compared to December, but only 73.1 percent of January 2019 levels.
According to Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky, the early part of January “showed promise”, but momentum dwindled leading into the Chinese New Year holiday, which began on January 28th.
The average daily GGR for the month was MOP589 million ($73.4 million), consistent with December’s figures. Notably, January 2025 had the same number of weekends as the previous year, with weekends typically generating over 20 percent more GGR than midweek days.
The eight-day Chinese New Year holiday is crucial for Macau’s gaming sector, though past results during the holiday have been mixed. For instance, CNY 2019 contributed only 2 percent of that year’s GGR, while CNY 2024 accounted for 2.7 percent.
Early reports indicate that Macau welcomed 821,000 visitors during the first five days of the holiday, with approximately 74 percent coming from mainland China. This figure is 9 percent lower than the same period in 2024, which saw a high average of nearly 170,000 visitors per day.
Umansky estimates that the 2025 Chinese New Year holiday could yield about MOP800 million ($99.7 million) per day, totaling MOP6.4 billion (nearly $800 million), roughly 2.6 percent of the annual GGR projection for 2025.
Looking ahead, the analyst forecasts February’s GGR to be slightly better than January, estimating MOP18.5 billion ($2.3 billion), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percent and a month-on-month rise of 1.3 percent.
Despite the weaker-than-expected January performance and the soft start to the Chinese New Year, Umansky maintains a growth forecast of nearly 7 percent for Macau’s GGR in 2025, supported by favorable policies from the Chinese government and improvements in consumer confidence.
In 2024, China introduced new visa policies aimed at boosting visitation to Macau, including faster processing and multi-entry options for residents of nearby Zhuhai. This policy is expected to enhance visitor numbers from key provinces, particularly Guangdong, which accounts for over 53 percent of mainland visitors to Macau.
As the gaming industry navigates challenges, including a crackdown on illegal money exchange, Seaport remained cautiously optimistic about the recovery of Macau’s gaming sector and its potential for growth in the coming years.
