Investment banks are projecting Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow at a slower and more uneven pace in February, despite solid January performance, with forecasts for the month ranging from a 4 percent to 12.8 percent yearly rise.
Analysts broadly expect seasonal volatility linked to the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday to weigh on early-month activity before demand normalizes later in the period.
Citigroup is the most cautious among the major investment banks, forecasting February GGR of around MOP20.5 billion ($2.53 billion), representing 4 percent year-on-year growth. The bank expects February will have noticeable seasonal weakness ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, noting that gaming activity typically slows during the Spring Festival travel rush as visitation shifts toward peak holiday dates rather than being evenly distributed across the month.
According to Citigroup, the slowest days of the year are likely to fall between February 3rd and February 18th, encompassing the period leading up to and including the early days of the Chinese New Year.
The bank expects activity to rebound immediately thereafter, with the busiest days likely concentrated in the five days following this trough. As a result, daily GGR run rates are expected to remain uneven throughout the month despite underlying gaming demand remaining intact. Citigroup added that its combined January–February forecast accounts for the different timing of the Chinese New Year compared with last year, helping to smooth month-to-month volatility.
CLSA adopts a more moderate stance, projecting February GGR to grow 7 percent year-on-year to MOP21.2 billion ($2.62 billion). While also acknowledging seasonal disruption from the Chinese New Year, CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang says January’s strong finish provided a stable base for the sector entering 2026. The brokerage pointed to resilient mass-market demand and steady visitation trends as supportive factors, even as daily revenue fluctuates around the holiday period.
Beyond February, CLSA maintains a constructive medium-term view on Macau’s gaming recovery, forecasting full-year 2026 GGR growth of around 5 percent year-on-year. The bank said a modestly strengthening renminbi against the US dollar, along with improving macroeconomic indicators in mainland China, should continue to underpin gaming demand over the course of the year.
Deutsche Bank is the most optimistic among the three, forecasting February GGR of roughly $2.79 billion, implying 12.8 percent year-on-year growth and exceeding broader market consensus. The bank said February comparisons remain supportive despite seasonal headwinds, noting that January’s performance exceeded historical seasonal norms and provided momentum heading into the holiday period.
Deutsche Bank also highlighted that January GGR rose 24 percent year-on-year and was only about 9 percent below pre-pandemic levels, reinforcing its view that Macau’s gaming recovery remains on track. The bank’s forecasts call for first-quarter 2026 GGR of about $8.4 billion, followed by full-year GGR of $33.2 billion, indicating continued normalization rather than rapid acceleration.
