NagaCorp is expected to build a substantial cash reserve of $726 million by 2028, equivalent to about 31 percent of its current market capitalization, as the Cambodia-focused casino operator benefits from improving operating momentum and disciplined capital spending, according to a research note by CLSA.
The brokerage said the Hong Kong-listed group is ‘poised to generate robust cashflow’ from 2026 onward, supported by a rebound in VIP rolling volumes and lower-than-expected capital expenditure. CLSA also maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
A key near-term catalyst highlighted by the group is Cambodia’s planned four-month visa exemption for Chinese visitors starting June 15th, which is expected to drive visitation and gaming revenue growth in the third quarter of 2026.
CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang wrote that the company’s long-term outlook remains intact despite geopolitical tensions, noting that ‘foreign direct investments into Cambodia […] remain intact,’ while sequential improvements in VIP volumes following the Cambodia–Thailand ceasefire signal a recovery in high-value segments.
Strong basis to build from
Financial projections indicate steady expansion over the forecast period. Revenue is expected to rise from $710 million in 2025 to $854 million by 2028, while net profit is projected to increase from $310 million to $408 million.
In terms of recent financial performance, NagaCorp reported a resilient set of results for 2025 despite geopolitical headwinds. The company recorded revenue of $710 million and net profit of $310 million, a sharp recovery from prior years, with net profit growth of over 180 percent year-on-year.
NagaCorp’s net profit margin reached a record 43.7 percent, supported by disciplined rebate spending and stronger gaming hold rates, particularly from side bets that helped underpin margins. Operating cashflow also strengthened significantly to $532 million, reflecting improved earnings quality and cost control.
The strengthening balance sheet is driven by consistent operating cashflow, with cash and equivalents forecast to grow from $372 million in 2025 to $726 million by 2028. Analyst also expects the company to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio of about 30 percent over the period, following the resumption of dividends in 2025.
NagaCorp operates NagaWorld in Phnom Penh, the largest integrated resort in Cambodia and the only casino complex permitted in the capital under a long-term license. Its monopoly position within a 200-kilometer radius of Phnom Penh, valid through 2045, continues to underpin its market dominance.
CLSA added that the company’s improving margins, disciplined cost control, and exposure to regional tourism flows position it to deliver sustained earnings and cashflow growth over the medium term.
