Moody’s Ratings has upgraded NagaCorp’s corporate family rating (CFR) to B2 from B3, citing sustained improvements in earnings and cash flow driven by resilient performance across its mass and premium segments.
The outlook is stable, reflecting expectations that the company will maintain solid operating momentum and strong credit metrics over the next 12 to 18 months.
“The upgrade reflects continued improvement in NagaCorp’s earnings and cash flow, supported by resilient performance at its mass market and premium segments,” said Anthony Prayugo, a Moody’s Ratings analyst.
Moody’s noted that the rating is underpinned by the company’s dominant position through its flagship NagaWorld integrated resort in Phnom Penh, alongside Cambodia’s relatively low labor costs and favorable gaming tax regime, which support a competitive cost structure.
However, the agency also flagged key risks, including the company’s reliance on a single operating site, exposure to political and regulatory developments in Cambodia, and uncertainties surrounding its expansion plans.
Financially, NagaCorp reported gross gaming revenue of $692 million and EBITDA of $404 million in 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 27 percent and 39 percent, respectively. The gains were attributed to higher volumes across both mass and premium segments, as well as a shift toward higher-margin offerings.
Moody’s expects EBITDA to remain above $400 million in 2026, broadly in line with 2025 levels, supported by continued foreign direct investment inflows into Cambodia, which are expected to drive visitation from business travelers and expatriates.
The agency added that while funding for the Naga 3 expansion remains uncertain following the withdrawal of promoter support, associated risks are likely to be manageable. The final capital expenditure is expected to be “materially lower” than the initial $3.5 billion estimate and largely funded through internal cash flows.
Liquidity remains strong, with cash and deposits of $372 million as of December 31st, 2025, alongside a projected operating cash flow of around $821 million through 2027.
CLSA sees ‘good signs’ despite modest growth
Separately, brokerage CLSA highlighted improving operational trends in early 2026, although overall growth remains moderate.
In a recent research note, CLSA said NagaCorp’s first-quarter 2026 gross gaming revenue rose 2 percent year-on-year to $175 million, representing 23 percent of its full-year forecast. The brokerage expects momentum to strengthen later in the year, with analyst Jeffrey Kiang noting that growth should ‘accelerate in 3Q26 on Cambodia’s four-month visa-free trial for Chinese visitors,’ which is expected to support higher visitation and gaming volumes.
CLSA pointed to a continued shift toward higher-margin mass-market play, with mass segment revenue rising 19 percent year-on-year to $130 million, supported by increased table buy-ins and slot machine activity. Mass business accounted for 74 percent of total GGR in the quarter, up from 64 percent a year earlier.
By contrast, VIP segments remained under pressure. Premium VIP revenue declined 16 percent year-on-year due to lower rolling volume, while referral VIP revenue dropped 52 percent, reflecting ongoing weakness in that segment.
Despite this, CLSA said sequential improvements were evident, particularly following a ceasefire agreement between Cambodia and Thailand, which supported a recovery in daily gaming volumes across most segments.
‘We see good signs for 1Q26 gaming EBITDA as the revenue mix has shifted towards the high-margin mass business,’ the report said, maintaining an Outperform rating.
