Morgan Stanley cuts Genting Singapore rating amid competitive struggles in city’s duopoly

Singapore

Viviana Chan

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August 8, 2025

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Morgan Stanley cuts Genting Singapore rating amid competitive struggles in city’s duopoly

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has downgraded Genting Singapore to underweight, citing a deteriorating mass market share and margin structure issues that signal deeper competitive challenges in Singapore’s two-operator casino market.

The downgrade—issued by analysts Praveen K. Choudhary, Anson Lee, and Stephen W. Grambling—follows Genting Singapore’s disappointing 2Q25 results, which missed consensus estimates and underscored the company’s weakening position against rival Marina Bay Sands.

Genting Singapore, the operator of Resorts World Sentosa, reported 2Q25 EBITDA of SG$205 million ($151 million), falling short of analyst expectations. The company’s mass market share dropped to 26 percent during the quarter, down from 43 percent in 2021, despite operating in what analysts describe as a protected duopoly.

‘Weak quarter but not the bottom. Downgrade to UW (underweight). 2Q25 EBITDA of SG$205 million missed expectations. Mass market share of 26 percent in a duopoly, and weak margin structure suggest deeper competitive issues, which could take longer to solve,’ the Morgan Stanley wrote in their research note.

The analysts have cut their EBITDA estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 5 percent and 6 percent respectively, placing their forecasts 2 percent to 4 percent below consensus. They also reduced their price target to SG$0.70 ($0.51) from SG$0.85 ($0.62), using a target free cash flow to equity (FCFE) yield of 8 percent, up from 7 percent previously.

Competitive positioning concerns

The downgrade reflects growing concerns over Genting Singapore’s performance relative to Marina Bay Sands, which delivered far stronger results in the same period. Marina Bay Sands posted hold-adjusted EBITDA of SG$661 million ($487 million) in the second quarter, representing 9 percent quarter-on-quarter growth and 48 percent year-on-year growth.

‘It is even more important to note that this is happening at a time when Marina Bay Sands (duopoly competition) is doing much better business,’ the analysts wrote, underscoring the widening performance gap between Singapore’s two integrated resorts.

Resorts World Sentosa, Genting Singapore

Financial challenges ahead

The analysts project Genting Singapore’s annual FCFE will turn negative in 2025 for the first time, primarily due to high capital expenditure (capex) on the Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) 2.0 expansion project. This is expected to reduce the company’s net cash position from SG$3.3 billion ($2.43 billion) to SG$1.4 billion ($1.03 billion) by the end of 2027.

The company’s return on invested capital (ROIC)—a measure of how efficiently a company generates profits from its investments—has also declined steadily, reaching an estimated 9 percent in 2025, down from levels above 30 percent that both Singapore casinos maintained between 2011 and 2025. While Marina Bay Sands continues to post high ROIC levels, Genting Singapore’s ROIC fell below 10 percent in 1H25.

‘Company annual FCFE in 2025 will turn negative for the first time ever owing to high capex on RWS 2.0. This is before paying the dividend, resulting in depletion of current net cash of SG$3.3 billion and also resulting in lower net interest income,’ the analysts noted.

Singapore, Casino Control Act, Cashless gaming

Market outlook and alternatives

While Genting Singapore offers a 5.5 percent dividend yield, new attractions in the pipeline, and what analysts consider a reasonable valuation at 16 times forward price-to-earnings ratio, Morgan Stanley remains concerned about persistent downward earnings revisions.

The bank highlights that 2025 EBITDA estimates for Genting Singapore have been cut repeatedly—from SG$1.3 billion ($958 million) in 2024, to SG$1.1 billion ($810 million) in early 2025, and now to SG$950 million ($699 million). The analysts say they prefer Macau gaming stocks instead, citing recent 19 percent year-on-year growth in gross gaming revenue and signs of a sector re-rating.

Morgan Stanley’s preferred gaming investments include MGM China, Melco Resorts, Sands China, and Las Vegas Sands, which they say are better positioned to benefit from the recovering Macau market.

Lotus iGaming accelerates growth in Brazil with BIG Brasil rollout

Elsewhere

AGBrief Editorial

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August 8, 2025

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Lotus iGaming accelerates growth in Brazil with BIG Brasil rollout

Lotus iGaming, an award-winning platform provider, has strengthened its position as a trusted technology partner in Brazil after a successful launch with leading operator BIG Brasil.

BIG Brasil operates three licensed brands in the country, including a high-profile partnership with Caesars Las Vegas, and has quickly established itself as a powerful force in the local market.

Built for speed, compliance and performance, BIG Brasil has benefited from INFINITY, Lotus iGaming’s propriety technology, which provides robust platform capabilities and integrated player management tools tailored to the needs of the local region.

The successful collaboration reflects the growing strength of Brazil’s regulated betting landscape, and demonstrates Lotus iGaming’s ability to deliver tailored, high-performance solutions in Latin America.

With a solid foundation, secure infrastructure, and a powerful sportsbook offering both localised and international markets, the supplier has clear ambitions to lead advancements in Brazil and across global markets.

Ivo Doroteia, CEO at Lotus iGaming, said: “We are extremely proud of the performance this relationship has produced, and excited to see it continue to develop in the future. The rapid growth of the partnership confirms that our services can make a positive difference for companies. This is just the beginning of our broader journey in Brazil.”

ZITRO’s debut in Paraguay sets the stage for gaming innovation

Elsewhere

AGBrief Editorial

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August 8, 2025

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ZITRO’s debut in Paraguay sets the stage for gaming innovation

ZITRO recently held its first-ever ZITRO Experience Paraguay, an exclusive event that brought together top operators, clients, and industry leaders at the prestigious Hotel Casino Acaray.

Held during SAGSE, the event quickly became a must-attend gathering to showcase the company’s latest innovations and strengthen strategic partnerships in the region.

Attendees got an up-close look at ZITRO’s new CONCEPT cabinet line and games, which are already transforming the gaming experience across Latin America with their striking design and high performance. The presentation featured a spectacular production that highlighted ZITRO’s commitment to innovation and product excellence.

Zitro, Concept Cabinet Line at G2E Las Vegas 2024 — CONCEPT cabinet line

The atmosphere was relaxed and welcoming, designed to foster business relationships while offering a full experience with curated cuisine and unique entertainment, making the evening truly memorable. Clients, operators, and industry professionals alike agreed on the importance of this event for driving growth in the Paraguayan market and reinforcing ZITRO’s position as a key strategic partner.

Alejandra Burato, Regional Director for Latin America, shared: “It was a privilege to connect with so many operators and friends at this event. I especially want to recognize Viviana Colman, our Country Manager in Paraguay, whose dedication and deep market knowledge have been instrumental in strengthening our presence and partnerships here. Paraguay is a strategic market for us, and this event reaffirms our commitment to delivering a broad and diverse offering that adds real value to operators.”

Sebastián Salat, ZITRO’s International President, added: “We’re incredibly proud to bring ZITRO Experience to Paraguay for the first time. As the first slot machine manufacturer to organize an event like this in the country, we want to demonstrate our commitment to this market and continue innovating with high-performance products that drive our clients’ success. As I always say, ZITRO isn’t just entering Paraguay — we’re already here, with a dedicated and talented local team and office. This ZITRO Experience marks the beginning of a new era where we’re more determined than ever to support the dynamic and growing gaming industry in this fantastic country.”

This marks the launch of SBC Summit’s most ambitious educational initiative yet: four full-day Tech Academies covering AI, Marketing, Web 3.0 & Blockchain, and a new academy set to be announced soon. Designed to deliver hands-on, interactive learning with the world’s leading experts, the programme is open to all professionals with an interest in tech, not just those within the gaming industry.

The Marketing Academy, a key pillar of SBC Summit’s Tech Academy programme, brings together a world-class mix of talent, including Gary Vaynerchuk, content creators, PR professionals, marketing veterans, and SEO experts, for a day of hands-on, high-impact learning. The academy takes place on Wednesday, 17 September at Sala Tejo, part of the MEO Arena.

Rasmus Sojmark, CEO & Founder of SBC, commented: “With Tech Academies, we’re making an ambitious upgrade to SBC’s educational programme. It’s a new layer of value for attendees, giving them direct access to world-class expertise they can take home and apply where it matters most.”

Vaynerchuk’s ask-me-anything session, which will open the Marketing Academy, is inspired by his New York Times bestseller Day Trading Attention. This high-energy, interactive session gives attendees direct access to one of the world’s most recognised marketers, diving into how to capture and convert underpriced attention across social media, paid ads, influencer campaigns, and emerging brand channels.

Sojmark added: “Gary will, of course, deliver a keynote on the Super Stage — but we also wanted him at the Marketing Academy, where the setting is a little different. It’s more direct, more immediate, and the focus is firmly on practical insights. And let’s be honest — one session with Gary Vaynerchuk would never be enough.”

_{Thomas Balling Rasmussen, Marketing expert}

Next up, attendees will take part in “The Fundamentals of Marketing: A Strategy that Makes Your CFO Lean in”, an interactive masterclass with marketing expert Thomas Balling Rasmussen. With decades of experience in sports betting and iGaming, including a tenure as Group Marketing Director at Betsson, Rasmussen now advises global brands like Entain.

He’s also supporting SBC with the marketing strategy behind the high-profile Legends Charity Game, which will see Portugal Legends face off against World Legends in a bid to raise €1,000,000 for charitable causes. In his session, Rasmussen will present a case study on how to maximise your marketing budget by shifting focus from responding to demand to actively creating it. He’ll demonstrate the fundamental marketing strategies that are guaranteed to get your CFO on side.

“From Myths to Methods: Advanced SEO Tactics That Move the Needle” will focus on the importance of building a holistic approach to SEO that moves beyond traditional tactics. SEO experts Sean Bianco (Co-Founder, Gainchanger), James Dooley (Chairman, Searcharoo), Craig Campbell (SEO Trainer and Consultant, Craig Campbell SEO), and Karl Hudson (Founder, Searcharoo) will deliver a hands-on session exploring the future of backlinks, Navboost strategies, and high-ROI tactics that align technical SEO with user engagement to futureproof long-term rankings.

Also featured in the Marketing Academy are two practical deep dives into brand protection and influencer marketing, critical focus areas for any business navigating today’s attention economy.

In an ask-me-anything session titled “Communication is Everything: Hear from a Leading PR Professional,” Edie Lush (Communications Trainer, Events MC and Journalist) will explore the challenges of preserving brand identity in an age of real-time news cycles and online scrutiny. From crisis communications to cause-driven marketing, attendees will gain candid insights into how PR can be both a shield and a spotlight and how charitable initiatives can support brand equity without veering into ‘purpose-washing.’

“Influencer Marketing: How to Use Social Media as a Primary Channel” will bring together leading social media creators to explore how brands can collaborate with influencers to build authentic and viral campaigns. Like all Tech Academies at SBC Summit, this session is designed to be industry-agnostic, offering valuable insights for professionals across all sectors, not just gaming.

Sojmark concluded: “We’re building something that goes beyond the gaming industry. The Tech Academies are about equipping professionals from all sectors with the tools, insights, and connections they need to thrive in a fast-moving digital world. Whether you’re in gaming, marketing, tech, or something entirely different — there’s something here for you.”

Academies are for Expo+ and VIP Event Pass holders only.

You can RSVP to attend the tech academies here.

VIP Event Pass: Access to the show floor, all networking areas and conference sessions, complimentary food and drink from the summit’s food festival and access to exclusive evening networking sessions and parties.
Group VIP Event Pass: Get your passes for just €400 each when you purchase for three or more people (a saving of €200 per ticket!) – perfect for bringing your team along.
Expo+ Pass: Access to the show floor, conference sessions and daytime networking only.
Expo Only Pass: Our free option, which gives you access to the show floor only. This is perfect for individuals from outside the gaming industry that want to explore potential partnerships. Please note, this will not grant you access to our academies.
Operator and Affiliate Passes: Operators and affiliates are eligible for a free VIP event pass.

The property EBITDA figure of $254 million was a drop of 10 percent year-on-year, despite being a sequential rise of about 1 percent. Jefferies analysts note that the figure was 6 percent lower than anticipated and 6 percent below consensus. Analysts at Morgan Stanley (MS) had predicted a figure closer to $274 million, falling short of predictions.

Analysts with both firms noted that the Macau operator lost market share during the quarter, with Jefferies calculating a 50 basis point drop to 12 percent from 1Q25 to 2Q25. Morgan Stanley saw a 0.3 percent decrease in mass market share, to 12.1 percent.

Breakdown

Despite seeing strong VIP rolling chip volumes during the quarter, a low VIP hold had a strong impact on financials.

According to a Jefferies tally, 2Q25 VIP gross gaming revenue (GGR) totaled $150 million, a yearly increase of 6 percent.

Looking at mass, the analysts tallied $692 million in GGR, flat year-on-year, while slots rose by 8 percent yearly, to $61 million.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley indicated that mass table revenue was down 3 percent sequentially, with the mass table win rate down 190 basis points, ‘suggesting weakened premium mass positioning vs. peers’.

Overall revenue from the two properties totaled $883 million, flat year-on-year, with Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau displaying opposite tendencies – the peninsula property being up by 2 percent, to $344 million, while Wynn Palace was down 2 percent, to $540 million.

June/July

Analysts at both firms highlighted the company’s June/July figures – with Wynn indicating that it had generated hold adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 million. Analysts at Jefferies note that this was due to ‘the high hold for the period’.

Good Morning. When you invite all the guests, sometimes you get less of the cake for yourself. In the case of Wynn’s Macau results during the second quarter, while the VIP segment saw a positive turnover uptick, particularly in Cotai, a low hold dragged on the possibility for better revenue, but overall the quarter was solid. Also in results, Genting Singapore saw profits dip significantly in 1H25, influenced by lower tourism-driven dollars. And in the Philippines, shifts are occurring quickly in the online space, with the central bank aiming to rei n in gambling spend with new rules for financial service providers.

What you need to know

Wynn’s Macau 2Q25 revenue flat YoY, as low VIP hold drags down what could have been a strong quarter.
Philippine central bank targets online gambling risks with rules on ID checks, transfer limits, and consumer protection tools for digital finance users.
Genting Singapore’s net profit drops 34 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, amongst lower tourist demand.

On the radar

South Korea’s GKL reports 49.7% net profit increase to $12M in 2Q25.
Okada Manila parent TRLEI gets new President and COO in Sept.
Donaco sale approved by NSW Supreme Court, delisting on Friday.
PH gov’t insurance system replies to criticism of DigiPlus share purchases.
Sing. money laundering case: two stripped of Cypriot “golden passports”.

AGB Intelligence

RESULTS

Wynn Macau releases 2024 Sustainability Report, marking key environmental milestones

Wynn’s Macau 2Q25 results flat due to low VIP hold

Wynn Resorts’ story in Macau was not particularly exciting, but was by no means bad, as revenue remained virtually flat in the second quarter compared to last year. A particularly low VIP hold dragged down what could have been a significant uptick in VIP play at the group’s Cotai property and gaming results across the two properties were reasonable. But non-gaming revenue across both of its properties failed to impress.

Corporate Spotlight

Why Asia’s iGaming operators must rethink risk strategy | SEON

SEON,Winning Trust, Stopping Fraud: Why Asia’s iGaming Operators Must Rethink Risk Strategy

Winning Trust, Stopping Fraud. Asia Pacific’s iGaming market is expanding extremely fast, and a new wave of digital-savvy players is pushing demand through the roof. But the rise in adoption has outpaced regulation in many markets, and fraudsters have taken notice.

Industry Updates

JCM Global marks 70 years of innovation leadership at AGE 2025.
Brightstar Lottery secures a 7-year deal to upgrade Lotto Saxony.
Altenar enhances sportsbook offering with Bet Cards display feature..

INTELLIGENCE | ASEAN | CAREERS

“For 70 years at JCM, the spirit of innovation has been the driving force of our global design and development teams, who continue to create leading technologies. We invite the industry to join us at stand #934 at AGE to celebrate our history of creating solutions that operators rely on to boost security, increase efficiencies, and enhance the guest experience,” said JCM Asia-Pacific General Manager Ian Payne.

At the stand, JCM will showcase its award-winning bill validators, iVIZION and UBA Pro. These best-in-class technologies are proven to provide the highest levels of security and acceptance in automated transaction applications.

ivizion by JCM Global-bill-validators — _{iVIZION by JCM Global}

UBA Pro by JCM Global, billl validators — _{iVIZION by JCM Global}

JCM is one of the industry’s most prolific innovators and will present multiple pioneering solutions. FUZION offers a full suite of features, including BLE mobile wallet connectivity, real-time peripheral performance data, proactive drop/fill alerts, real-time asset monitoring, and more. JCM will also feature the ICB Intelligent Cash Box system, which is proven to eliminate multiple points of human error for a streamlined and more compliant drop process.

Additionally, JCM will display its trusted GEN5 and CouponXpress thermal printers, the standard in the gaming industry. These reliable, smart printers give casino operators the flexibility and power they need to communicate accurately and directly with players through TITO tickets and promotional coupons.

“In Australia, and around the world, operators rely on solutions from JCM, and we are thrilled to celebrate our 70^th anniversary while also creating forward-thinking technology roadmaps for our customers,” Payne said.

Wynn Resorts’ Macau operations virtually flat in 2Q25, impacted by low VIP hold

Kelsey Wilhelm

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August 8, 2025

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Wynn Resorts’ Macau operations virtually flat in 2Q25, impacted by low VIP hold

Revenue generated by Wynn Resorts’ two Macau properties in the second quarter of the year failed to excite, with a 0.2 percent drop in revenue, totaling $883.45 million – impacted by low VIP hold.

In results released on Thursday, the company revealed a 9.5 percent drop in adjusted property EBITDAR from its Macau operations, to $253.71 million during the quarter, particularly impacted by the results of the group’s Cotai property Wynn Palace.

Wynn Palace

The main driver of the group’s Macau operations, Wynn Palace, saw a 1.5 percent fall in its revenue year-on-year, to $539.64 million, while property EBITDAR dropped by 14.8 percent, to $157.2 million.

Casino revenue during the quarter actually increased, albeit by a slight 0.7 percent, to $448.28 million, and VIP turnover saw a surprising 44.9 percent increase – to $4.07 billion. However, the VIP win percentage amounted to just 2.86 percent, a significant drop from the 4.1 percent seen in 2Q24 and under the group’s expected range of 3.1-3.4 percent.

Table drop at the mass market tables was up by 6.1 percent yearly, to $1.84 billion, with the table games win percentage nearly flat, at 22.3 percent.

Slot machines did perform better year-on-year though, with the win per unit per day up by 22.6 percent, to $569. The slot machine win rose by 26.9 percent, to $32.48 million.

Rooms revenue took a hit during the quarter, down by 23.4 percent to $38.48 million, despite the property seeing 98.7 percent occupancy. Due to the contraction in both average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (REVPAR), both down 26.6 percent

Entertainment revenue also contracted, by 2.8 percent yearly, to $22.41 million, while F&B rose slightly by 2.1 percent, to $30.44 million.

Wynn Macau

The group’s peninsula property saw slightly differing trends from Cotai, but given its smaller contribution failed to fully bolster the group’s financials.

Casino revenue was up by 4.5 percent yearly, to $293.38 million. VIP turnover totaled $981.73 million, down by 15.7 percent, but the win percentage was good, up from 2.19 percent in 2Q24 to 3.41 percent in 2Q25, slightly above the group’s expected range.

Mass market table drop rose by just 0.9 percent, to $1.61 billion, with table games win percent nearly flat at 17.4 percent.

Slot machines performed less well compared to the same quarter of last year, with the win per unit per day down by 20.3 percent, to $369, and the slot machine win down by 3 percent to $25.19 million.

Non-gaming revenues at the property were down across the board. Rooms revenue fell by 8.4 percent year-on-year, to $21.74 percent – despite 99.4 percent occupancy. ADR and REVPAR were both down, by 8.5 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively. F&B revenue was down 14.9 percent, to $17.02 million, while that of entertainment and retail was down by 8.9 percent, to $11.67 million.

CEO comments

Speaking of the results, Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings noted that “In Macau, while VIP hold negatively impacted results, we generated healthy market share and significant free cash flow, supporting our continued investment in the Macau properties and our dividend program”.

Looking further abroad, the executive highlighted the progress on the group’s property in the UAE, slated to open in 2029, noting “we are making progress towards the completion of our Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE, where we are pouring the sixty-first floor of the tower, having finalized key food and beverage partnerships, and agreed to key terms with a number of high profile retail tenants”.

Wynn Al Marjan Island, Hotel entrance project render, Wynn Resorts — _{Hotel arrival at Wynn Al Marjan Island}

Wynn Al Marjan Island, view from the pool, project render, Wynn Resorts — _{Hotel arrival at Wynn Al Marjan Island}

Dinos Doxiadis, Director of Product – Sportsbook and Data at Altenar, said: “The introduction of Bet Cards reflects our commitment to giving operators greater flexibility and creative control over how they promote betting content. By simplifying the display of both boosted and curated selections, Bet Cards not only enhance the user experience but open up new possibilities for engagement. This is the start of our work to enhance Bet Cards to ensure our partners stay ahead in delivering the most personalised, high-impact sports betting experiences.”

Despite the overall year-on-year decline in the first half, the group noted a 3 percent revenue increase in the second quarter, reaching SG$588.3 million ($435.3 million). This was supported by stronger VIP rolling volume and win rates, as well as a rise in visitor numbers to Universal Studios Singapore, following the February 2025 launch of Illumination’s Minion Land.

Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter stood at SG$187.9 million ($139 million), down 7 percent from the previous year. The drop was primarily due to higher operating costs and the temporary closure of the S.E.A. Aquarium in May and June to prepare for the opening of the new Singapore Oceanarium.

Resorts World Sentosa $5B revamp set to open in 2030

The group noted it is navigating a “transformation phase” with steady growth in the second quarter, despite disruptions tied to the ongoing Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) 2.0 redevelopment. Genting highlighted continued progress in its upgrade efforts, including large-scale property renovations, asset refreshes, and infrastructure improvements aimed at repositioning RWS as a premium lifestyle and tourism destination.

Lotus iGaming accelerates growth in Brazil with BIG Brasil rollout

Lotus iGaming, an award-winning platform provider, has strengthened its position as a trusted technology partner in Brazil after a successful launch with leading operator BIG Brasil.

ZITRO’s debut in Paraguay sets the stage for gaming innovation

ZITRO recently held its first-ever ZITRO Experience Paraguay, an exclusive event that brought together top operators, clients, and industry leaders at the prestigious Hotel Casino Acaray.

Table of Contents

Gary Vaynerchuk to launch SBC Summit 2025’s Marketing Academy with exclusive AMA

Gary Vaynerchuk, renowned entrepreneur and marketing powerhouse, will kick off SBC Summit 2025’s first-ever Marketing Academy with an exclusive AMA (Ask Me Anything) session.

Academies are for Expo+ and VIP Event Pass holders only.

Table of Contents

Daily Asia Gaming eBrief: Low VIP hold drags on Wynn’s Macau results in 2Q25

What you need to know

On the radar