Macau’s economy is expected to remain resilient despite facing ‘softened momentum’ due to ongoing global economic uncertainty, according to the latest Monetary and Financial Stability Review published by the Monetary Authority of Macau (AMCM), the city’s financial regulator and de facto central bank.
The review, released in July, is based primarily on statistics and information available as of July 7th, 2025.
The AMCM noted that while ‘external headwinds persist’, economic expansion in mainland China—underpinned by ‘proactive fiscal measures’ and ‘moderately accommodative monetary policies’—will continue to support consumer confidence and create a more favourable environment for Macau’s service exports.
Locally, the SAR Government has implemented a series of policy measures aimed at sustaining domestic demand. These include revitalisation efforts in older districts and ‘consumption reward programs’ designed to stimulate local spending. According to the review, such initiatives are expected to ‘reinforce Macau’s recovery trajectory’ throughout the remainder of 2025, despite uncertainties in the global environment.
However, the report also identified areas of concern. Net service exports declined in the first quarter of 2025 amid slowing visitor expenditure. While service exports rose 9.2 percent in 2024—driven by a 23.8 percent increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR)—growth has since moderated. In the first quarter of 2025, GGR increased by only 0.6 percent year-on-year, with both mass-market and VIP baccarat revenues rising by just 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
As a result, service exports contracted by 3.4 percent, and after accounting for service imports, net service exports fell by 4.4 percent. This decline ‘dragged down Macau’s economic growth’ by 3.1 percentage points in the first quarter, the AMCM stated.
Inbound tourism strengthens, but spending weakens
Despite the challenges, Macau’s inbound tourism continued to gain momentum, with arrivals approaching pre-pandemic levels. Visitor numbers rose by 15.2 percent year-on-year to 16.3 million in the first five months of 2025, representing 95 percent of the 2019 level for the same period.
The increase was partly supported by policy enhancements introduced in early 2025, including the ‘one-trip-per-week’ and ‘multiple-entry’ travel permits. Since January 1st, permanent residents of Zhuhai have been able to apply for a ‘one-trip-per-week’ permit, allowing them to visit Macau once per calendar week, with a maximum stay of seven days per trip. Meanwhile, permanent residents and residence permit holders in Hengqin can apply for a ‘multiple-entry’ permit, enabling unlimited visits to Macau within a year, also with a maximum stay of seven days per trip.
These measures reflect a broader easing of the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) mechanism and are expected to be extended to additional cities across the Greater Bay Area.
According to the AMCM report, visitor arrivals from mainland China—Macau’s largest source market—increased by 19.1 percent to 11.8 million, while IVS travellers rose by 23.8 percent.
Arrivals from Hong Kong and Taiwan also recorded year-on-year increases of 1.8 percent and 16.1 percent, respectively.
However, total visitor spending declined in the first quarter. Tourism service exports, as defined in GDP accounting, fell by 3.6 percent, in contrast to the sharp 36 percent increase recorded in the same period a year earlier. Spending on gaming services rose slightly by 1.6 percent, while non-gaming expenditure dropped by 11.7 percent.
Despite this setback, spending on non-gaming services remained 12.7 percent above 2019 levels. Still, the AMCM flagged a ‘downward adjustment’ in overall visitor spending, particularly in retail. Retail sales dropped by 15 percent year-on-year, with luxury segments such as leather goods (-24.2 percent), cosmetics (-22.3 percent), and watches and jewellery (-17.3 percent) showing the steepest declines. This was attributed to a shift toward ‘more conservative spending habits’ among tourists amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
Diversification and regional integration remain priorities
Looking ahead, the AMCM stressed the importance of ‘appropriate economic diversification’ and ‘deeper integration’ into national development strategies to ensure long-term sustainability.
Macau government’s Policy Address for Fiscal Year 2025 outlined four major infrastructure projects aimed at advancing the ‘1+4’ diversification strategy. Major initiatives include the expansion of Macau International Airport, which is expected to ‘extend the city’s international reach’ and create new momentum for integrated tourism.
