Recent industry checks have confirmed that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) performance in February has profited from a prolonged visitation tail following the Chinese New Year (CNY) this year.
According to an investment memo from Bank of America, several operators have observed that more visitors staggered their trips to the region, opting to travel after the public holidays concluded on February 5th. This trend was particularly noticeable among premium gamblers, who preferred to visit in the second week of February to avoid the crowds typically associated with the peak of the CNY festivities.
Analysts Karl Choi, Ronald Leung, Eric Du, and Candice Zhang note that between February 10th and 16th—corresponding to the 13th to 19th day of CNY—average daily revenue (ADR) was estimated at MOP642 million ($80.1 million). In contrast, the same period in 2024 saw ADR dip to below MOP600 million ($74.8 million).
The extended CNY visitation tail this year is expected to alleviate concerns among investors over weaker GGR performance during the first week of CNY. As a result, February’s GGR is on track to be largely flat year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase.
Consequently, a 2-3 percent year-on-year drop for the combined January-February period is forecast. VIP performance showed slight outperformance compared to the mass market in February’s month-to-date (MTD) data, suggesting a modest recovery in high-roller activity.
Sands and Melco gain market share
In January 2025, Sands China saw a recovery in its market share, up 1.5 percentage point month-on-month to 22.5 percent. Melco also performed well, increasing its share by 2 percentage points month-on-month to 17.5 percent, reaching its highest level since the post-COVID reopening.
Meanwhile, Wynn Macau and MGM experienced a decline in their market shares. Wynn’s share dropped by 1.5 percentage point to 11.5 percent, its lowest since reopening, likely due to a choppy win rate despite an improvement in premium mass performance. MGM saw a 2 percentage point decrease to 15 percent.
Galaxy Entertainment and SJM remained steady in terms of market share, with no significant changes reported month-on-month.
Despite fluctuations in market share, GGR for both VIP and mass markets showed mixed results in January. VIP GGR grew 7.7 percent month-on-month but still fell short by 1.4 percent year-on-year. In contrast, mass market GGR saw a 2.3 percent monthly decline, with a more substantial 7.1 percent year-on-year drop.
President Xi’s suggestions on gaming to Thai PM
Analysts also commented on the recent meeting between Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where President Xi offered his insights regarding the potential legalization of gaming in Thailand.
President Xi cautioned that legalizing gaming could create social problems, a concern echoed by the Thai Prime Minister, who assured that further studies were underway to mitigate such risks. It’s important to note that China has, on occasion, reminded its citizens that gambling abroad—such as in destinations like Singapore—is illegal under Chinese law.
In this context, the brokerage notes that President Xi’s comments could indicate that any potential impact on Macau’s GGR from the legalization of casinos in Thailand may be limited, as China remains keen on controlling the flow of its citizens to foreign gambling destinations.
Smooth succession at Galaxy Entertainment
The investment memo also mentioned that Galaxy Entertainment‘s management succession appears to be progressing ‘smoothly’. Following the passing of patriarch Lui Che Woo in November 2024, his eldest son, Francis Lui, recently increased his stake in the company by another 8.3 percent, bringing his total ownership to 50.6 percent.
Francis Lui was appointed Chairman of Galaxy in December 2024, marking a seamless transition in leadership that aligns with market expectations.
