The looming Thai leadership crisis threatens to paralyze the government’s policy agenda, particularly its controversial push to legalize integrated resorts with casinos under a proposed entertainment complex bill.
“Many of the government’s key policy initiatives could face delays or hit a dead end, particularly the entertainment complex bill, given growing uncertainty over whether the coalition can present a united front when it comes time to vote in parliament,” Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Program at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, tells AGB.
Thailand is heading into a period of heightened political uncertainty as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s fate, with behind-the-scenes power plays and coalition negotiations intensifying in anticipation of her likely dismissal.
The court accepted a petition from 36 senators accusing Paetongtarn of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards, based on a leak of a politically sensitive telephone conversation with Cambodia’s influential former leader Hun Sen that was intended to de-escalate a territorial row and tense troop buildup at their border.
Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit took over in a caretaker capacity while the court decides the case against Paetongtarn, who has 15 days to respond and will remain in the Cabinet as the new culture minister following a reshuffle.
“As Thailand awaits the court’s final verdict, intense dealmaking and behind-the-scenes power struggles are likely to intensify in anticipation of Paetongtarn’s dismissal, which now appears all but certain”, Jatusripitak added.
Adding to the political pressure, Thailand’s opposition bloc and a coalition of civic organizations have formally petitioned Paetongtarn — who remains leader of the Pheu Thai Party – to withdraw two bills aimed at legalising casinos and online gambling.
The petition was submitted at Government House on Wednesday by Thanakorn Khomkrit, secretary-general of the Stop Gambling Foundation, who argued such policies should be subject to public consent.
“If these [casino] policies are truly important, Pheu Thai should propose them as part of their platform in the next election and let the public decide”, Khomkrit was quoted by The Bangkok Post as saying.
The controversy follows a separate petition with nearly 54,000 signatures submitted to the Election Commission last month, calling for a national referendum on the issue. Opposition MP Parit Wacharasindhu has also urged the government to scrap the entertainment complex bill entirely, citing widespread public concerns and the coalition’s failure to remove it from the legislative agenda.
Although an earlier report suggested the bill’s reading would be delayed by about a month, Parit noted it remained listed as the first item for debate when the House of Representatives reconvenes on July 9th.
If Paetongtarn is formally removed from office, veteran party figure and legal adviser Chaikasem Nitisiri is expected to be nominated as prime minister due to his close ties to Pheu Thai. However, his ability to command enough support in parliament is uncertain.
“Chaikasem is most likely to be nominated as PM first given his affiliation with Pheu Thai”, Jatusripitak tells AGB. “But he may not win enough support in parliament.”
With no clear successor enjoying broad consensus, Thailand may be heading toward another round of political gridlock.
“I think a deadlock during new PM selection is a very realistic scenario”, Jatusripitak added.
The instability comes at a precarious time for the country, as the economy faces sluggish growth and investor wariness, casting a shadow over the government’s ability to implement reforms and maintain momentum on high-stakes legislation.
