Maybank has revised down its earnings forecasts for Digiplus for FY26 and FY27 by 16 percent, as the company shifts toward prioritizing higher-value player engagement over expanding its monthly active user (MAU) base.
In a Tuesday note, analyst Raffy Mendoza said the downgrade was driven primarily by lower revenue expectations as Digiplus moves away from volume-driven growth. ‘We revised downwards our FY26E/FY27E net income projections by 16 percent each mainly after cutting our revenue forecasts… which factors in management guidance of lower MAUs but retaining high-value users,’ he wrote.
The revised projections estimate net income of PHP13.6 billion ($227 million) for FY26 and PHP16.5 billion ($276 million) for FY27, implying more moderate growth in the near term before a rebound. Maybank expects earnings to rise by around 8 percent year-on-year in FY26, followed by a stronger 22 percent increase in FY27.
The adjustment comes as Digiplus recalibrates its strategy following a decline in its active user base beginning in the second half of FY25, amid tighter regulatory conditions in the Philippines’ online gaming sector. The company is shifting focus toward improving average revenue per user (ARPU), supported by targeted engagement initiatives and product enhancements.
In line with this transition, Maybank also cut its revenue forecasts by 12 percent for FY26 and 18 percent for FY27, factoring in lower MAUs partially offset by stronger monetization from higher-value users.
Despite the weaker top-line outlook, margins are expected to improve, supported in part by Digiplus’s investment in International Entertainment Corp (IEC), which owns and operates the New Coast Hotel Manila and casino complex.
The investment provides exposure to an integrated resort platform, complementing Digiplus’s digital gaming operations. It has also enabled the company to benefit from a lower tax rate paid to the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) on gaming revenues under a commercial agreement that allows the application of integrated casino tax terms.
This was reflected in the fourth quarter of FY25, when franchise fees and taxes as a share of gaming revenues declined to 31.5 percent, compared with around 38 percent to 39 percent in the first three quarters of the year.
Maybank estimates these efficiencies will help lift EBITDA margins from 16.9 percent in FY25 to approximately 19.7 percent by FY27, partially offsetting weaker revenue growth.
