Maybank has cut its FY26 earnings forecast for Malaysian casino conglomerate Genting Berhad by 11 percent, while raising its FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 14 percent and 16 percent, respectively, largely on the back of expected contributions from table games at Resorts World New York City (RWNYC), according to a research note.
The investment bank maintained its ‘Buy’ recommendation on Genting Berhad but lowered its sum-of-the-parts target price, citing weaker near-term performance across several of the group’s gaming and plantation assets.
Genting Berhad’s first-quarter 2026 core net profit of MYR117.1 million ($29.6 million) represented only 14 percent of Maybank’s full-year estimate. The underperformance was attributed to elevated costs at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) stemming from its ongoing transformation program, alongside higher marketing, advertising and promotional spending, as well as increased payroll costs at Resorts World Genting (RWG), Genting UK (GENUK) and RWNYC.
Weaker contributions from Genting Plantations (GENP) also weighed on results due to inventory build-up, a higher effective tax rate of 35 percent, and lower-than-expected profit contributions from premium outlets.
First-quarter EBITDA eased 9 percent year-on-year, partly because RWS VIP volume fell 35 percent to SG$5.6 billion ($4.35 billion), alongside higher promotional allowances.
On a positive note, Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV) delivered a strong rebound, with first-quarter EBITDA surging to $50.2 million, well above Maybank’s estimate of $20 million. Genting attributed the recovery to higher VIP volume and increased visitor arrivals following the expansion of the nearby Las Vegas Convention Center in late 2025.
RWNYC tax cut to boost long-term earnings
The upward revisions to FY27 and FY28 forecasts are supported by maiden earnings from RWNYC‘s table games, as well as a reduction in the property’s gaming machine tax rate to 56 percent from 68 percent, effective April 28th, 2026.
Maybank estimates the tax cut will boost Genting Berhad’s FY26 earnings by approximately MYR200 million ($50.5 million), or roughly MYR300 million ($75.8 million) on a full-year basis.
Maybank assumes RWNYC will operate an average of 250, 400 and 600 tables in FY26, FY27 and FY28 respectively. The analyst forecasts a three-year forward EBITDA compound annual growth rate of 8 percent for the group, driven primarily by the deployment of table games at the New York property.
