Macau’s gaming sector experienced a 26 percent year-on-year decline in average gross gaming revenue (GGR) per visitor in January 2024.
CreditSights, a Fitch Group firm, notes in its latest investment memo that the average GGR per visitor decreased from MOP6,757 ($846) in January 2024 to MOP5,006 ($627) in January 2025, likely driven by a shift in the visitor mix, with an increase in non-casino visitors.
CreditSights’ Wednesday memo noted that January 2025’s GGR per visitor was only 69 percent of pre-pandemic January 2019 levels. Analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey also highlighted the ongoing challenges in the gaming sector, particularly the subdued presence of junket-sourced VIPs.
Non-gaming spend is unlikely to change in the short term
CreditSights notes that non-gaming spend is unlikely to change significantly in the short term. While non-gaming projects may improve operators’ margins, the flow-through remains dependent on strong visitation and overall volume.
The group highlighted statistical data showing a 6 percent year-over-year increase in non-gaming spending for FY24, reaching 118 percent of FY19 levels. This growth was driven by a 24 percent increase in total visitor arrivals. However, non-gaming spending per capita fell by 15 percent year-over-year to MOP2,157 ($270).
Analysts expect this trend to continue, with per capita non-gaming spending normalizing as the visitor mix shifts toward less affluent regions.
Strong visitor arrivals in January
The same investment memo also points out a significant boost in overall visitor arrivals for Macau in January 2025. Total arrivals climbed to 3.6 million, a 27 percent yearly increase, surpassing pre-pandemic levels (106.5 percent of January 2019 figures). Mainland Chinese tourists continued to dominate, making up 75 percent of the total visitors.
However, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the month declined by 6 percent year-on-year to MOP18.3 billion ($2.29 billion), representing only 73 percent of January 2019 levels. Analysts attribute this decline to several factors, including softer tourist arrivals during the early days of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, a shift in the visitor mix toward lower-spending premium mass tourists, and an increase in non-casino visitors.
Despite the January decline, analysts expect sequential improvement in GGR for February, driven by stronger visitation during the latter part of the CNY period, which saw healthier foot traffic and more visitors post-CNY compared to the previous year.
Visitor arrivals from Chinese provinces with higher GDP per capita, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, have already fully recovered to pre-COVID levels. Analysts suggest that future growth in visitation will likely come from provinces with lower GDP per capita, which may limit the potential for a significant increase in GGR per visitor.
