The rebound in Macau’s gross gaming revenue in recent months has been driven by ‘higher spend by wealthy Chinese, increased agency and junket business, more visitation and higher frequency’.
According to Seaport Research Partners Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky, growth has mostly been ‘driven by higher ends of the market’. However, the overnight base mass is still ‘weak’ even as day-tripper business grows.
For the year overall, the outlook ‘looks good, with double-digit growth in GGR (gross gaming revenue) for the market possible’.
Macau saw a total of MOP140.89 billion ($17.51 billion) in GGR during the first seven months of the year, up by 6.5 percent yearly.
Earlier this month, Umansky highlighted that July had delivered the best GGR month since COVID, at MOP22.12 billion ($2.75 billion), up 19 percent yearly, noting it was ‘significantly better’ than initial expectations.
The analyst also noted that ‘visitation growth remains robust and spend per visitor is improving’.
The new analysis of the Macau market notes the possibility GGR growth could exceed its revised FY25 GGR growth forecast of 9 percent, driven by ‘increased marketing and improving China consumer sentiment, coupled with stronger higher quality average visitation into Macau’.
Outlook for Sands China
The indication of the possibility for double-digit growth this year comes after Seaport’s meeting with Las Vegas Sands, during Day 2 of its 2025 Seaport Annual Summer Conference.
Aside from the overall market takeaways from the meeting, Umansky noted that ‘Sands has been revamping its marketing and player reinvestment to be more competitive in the market and to grow revenue, EBITDA and share’. But he does caution that ‘Sands is still in the early days of the revamped marketing effort’.
Now that the revamp of its Londoner property is finalized, marketing efforts are likely to redouble.
‘Player reinvestment dollars will go up, but ratio to revenues may start coming down/holding steady from last quarter levels,” notes the analyst, also pointing out how operational expenditure should increase in the low single digits as more labor is required to operate more open gaming tables.
‘The company will grow EBITDA sequentially. Higher growth in the market may benefit Sands due to its large capacity in hotel rooms and gaming positions,’ he furthers.
The expectation is that Sands China could raise dividends ‘as business improves’, hoping to hit up to $1.5 billion, of which – notes Umansky – Las Vegas Sands will receive over 72 percent.
The analyst also opines that LVS may ‘continue to buy back some Sands China stock to increase its ownership’.
