After tracking Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) data since the start of 2025, it is becoming the market consensus that the government’s GGR target for the year may not be met.
Yet another investment bank has echoed this sentiment in a new memo, noting that full-year GGR could fall short of the government’s earlier forecast.
Earlier last week, Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai suggested that achieving the government’s full-year GGR growth target of 5.8 percent for 2025 may be challenging. He attributed this to economic volatility and weaker-than-expected GGR performance during the first two months of the year.
According to analyst Linda Huang from Macquarie Equity Research, Macau’s average daily revenue (ADR) for the week of March 10th-16th stood at MOP621 million ($77.7 million), marking a 16 percent month-on-month decline and a 3 percent week-on-week drop.
Both the VIP and mass market segments recorded weaker ADRs compared to February levels. Mass volume declined by 8-10 percent month-on-month, while VIP volume fell by a similar 9-10 percent. The win rate for the second week of March stood at 2.8-3.1 percent, slightly down from the 3-3.3 percent recorded in the first week.
If ADR trends remain in the MOP580-640 million ($72.6-80.1 million) range for the rest of the month, total March GGR is expected to reach MOP18.8-19.7 billion ($2.35-2.46 billion). This would reflect a 1 percent year-on-year decrease and a 2 percent month-on-month decline, based on midpoint estimates from a third-party data provider.
Market share shifts in February
Macquarie’s report also highlighted changes in Macau gaming operators’ market share for February. MGM China and Wynn gained 2 and 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, respectively, reversing January’s losses. Conversely, Melco’s market share dropped 3 percentage points in February after gaining 2 percentage points the previous month.
Macquarie expects Macau gaming stocks to remain volatile due to fluctuating weekly GGR data. Despite this, the firm favors Galaxy Entertainment Group for its robust property pipeline and ample hotel room inventory. Sands China is also seen as increasingly attractive as it completes its renovation projects.
