Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) has declined in recent days, falling below seasonal trends, according to analysts at UBS.
Macau’s GGR averaged approximately MOP536 million ($66.8 million) per day over the last seven days, down from MOP594 million ($74 million) per day in the previous eight days.
This brings the month-to-date average to around MOP567 million ($70.7 million) per day, representing an 11 percent month-on-month decline. The seasonal trend for 2015-2019 was a 5 percent month-on-month drop.
Breaking down the revenue segments, UBS notes that mass GGR fell by about 10-12 percent month-on-month, while VIP gaming volumes declined by 8-10 percent, with a VIP hold rate of 3.1-3.4 percent.
UBS expects daily GGR to reach MOP900-950 million ($112-118 million) during the October Golden Week, which would align with the revenue levels seen during May Labor Week 2024 and last year’s October Golden Week, driven by ‘concert pipelines and visitor growth from new Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) eligible cities.’
Citigroup trims September GGR forecast amid weaker volumes
Citigroup has adjusted its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in September, citing weaker week-on-week performance.
‘Although volumes seem to be significantly weaker week-on-week, we suspect this reflects some players choosing to postpone their Macau trips until the Mid-Autumn Festival,’ the note states, referring to the mainland Chinese holiday that runs from September 15th to 17th.
As a result of this trend, Citigroup has conservatively revised its September 2024 GGR forecast, trimming it from MOP18.25 billion ($2.27 billion) to MOP17.75 billion ($2.21 billion).
This adjusted forecast still represents a 19 percent year-on-year increase but amounts to around 80 percent of September 2019 levels. The revised estimate implies a daily run rate of approximately MOP617 million for the rest of the month.
JP Morgan forecasts Macau’s GGR for September to be around MOP17 billion, translating to a daily run rate of about MOP570 million ($71 million). This would equal an 11 percent month-on-month decline from August’s MOP637 million ($79.4 million) per day.
As a result, third-quarter GGR is expected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter, which is below the historical seasonality of a 2-3 percent quarterly increase. According to JP Morgan, this is ‘widely anticipated by the market’ due to underperformance in June and July.
