MGM China growth should outpace the Macau gaming industry average in the last quarter of 2024 thanks to a strong VIP segment, Jefferies’ analysts predict.
Jefferies anticipates that MGM will report an adjusted EBITDA of HK$2 billion ($128.4 million) for the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting a 5 percent quarter-over-quarter increase and a margin of 27 percent.
At the parent company level, MGM China’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach $251 million.
Jefferies expects MGM to gain market share in 4Q24, although increased investments may lead to a slight decline in the adjusted EBITDA margin.


According to the brokerage, MGM China will see a 7 per cent quarter-over-quarter growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR), reaching $1.1 billion.
‘This growth outpaces the industry average of 3 per cent, attributed to strong performance in the VIP segment’, Jefferies analysts noted.
For property EBITDA, the brokerage forecasts that MGM Macau and MGM Cotai combined will report an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27 per cent, totaling HK$2.1 billion ($269.6 million).
This represents a 5 per cent quarter-over-quarter growth, which is slower than GGR growth due to anticipated increases in operating expenses.
Notably, these expenses include the newly opened Poly MGM Museum at MGM Macau, which launched on November 24, 2024 and the MGM Cotai 2049 show that debuted in December 2024.
