The Macau gaming industry is experiencing a predicted cooldown after the Chinese New Year (CNY), as March’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to be 71-75 percent of 2019 levels.
According to Macquarie Equity Research, for the first 10 days of March, the average daily revenue stood at MOP610 million ($75.7 million), which is 12 percent lower than the daily run rate recorded in the first 18 days of February, including the Chinese New Year period.
Assuming a daily run rate of MOP580 million ($72 million) to MOP630 million ($78.2 million) for the rest of the month, analysts from Macquarie consider that March GGR would come in at MOP18.3 ($2.27 billion) to MOP19.3 billion ($2.4 billion), or 71-75 percent of 2019 levels, versus 73 percent in February.
According to data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), Macau’s GGR amounted to MOP18.5 billion ($2.29 billion) in February, reflecting a 4.4 percent decrease from January’s MOP19.3 billion ($2.4 billion) and a 5.2 percent decline compared to the October high of MOP19.5 billion ($2.41 billion).
Macquarie notes that the third-party data provider noted that February’s GGR was impacted by a low VIP win rate of around 2 percent and that this has returned to a normal 2.8-3 percent in March.
The investment bank also mentions the new offering from Sands China in the market. As the gaming operators have, since the start of March, run a direct bus service from Venetian Macao to HK International Airport.
‘The firm expects to offer pre-flight registration for selected airlines from mid-March. Besides casino guests, the direct service should also benefit guests who attend meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) events.’
Meanwhile, Sands China has received government approval to hold a “Macau Poker Master Championship” at the Venetian from March 11 to 14. It will reportedly be the first tournament organized by a gaming company and open to the public since 2018. However, tournament rules are expected to differ from official competition, so it is more likely to attract non-professionals and tourists.
Macau ahead of seasonality
In another investment memo, UBS notes that GGR in the first ten days of March averaged MOP610 million ($75.7 million) per day, at 73 percent of 1Q19 level.
‘Assuming an 85-90 percent mass revenue mix of total GGR, we estimate mass GGR is tracking at 105-110 percent of 1Q19 level.’
Month-to-date GGR run-rate accelerated from the post-CNY level of MOP544 million ($67.5 million) per day and was down only 4 percent from February. ‘This is ahead of the 2015-19 seasonality of 9 percent month-over-month decline in the post-CNY month, partly led by a lower base effect in February 2024 due to a low VIP hold of 2 percent.’
Between the segments, UBS indicates that mass GGR was down 3-5 percent from last month, while VIP volume was down around 5 percent.
‘For the rest of March, we expect a busier event pipeline, along with the recent expansion of the Individual Visit Scheme to include Xi’an and Qingdao, to support GGR despite weaker seasonality.’ It adds.
Between the segments, USB indicates that mass GGR was down 3-5 percent from last month, while VIP volume was down around 5 percent.
‘For the rest of March, we expect a busier event pipeline, along with the recent expansion of Individual Visit Scheme to include Xi’an and Qingdao, to support GGR despite a weaker seasonality.’ It adds.
