CreditSights expects Wynn Macau to post incremental topline and EBITDA growth in the second quarter of 2026, supported by stronger Labor Day Golden Week performance and the recently opened Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace, although the research firm continues to forecast only low-single-digit growth for the full year due to ongoing competitive pressures in Macau’s gaming market.
In a report released on Monday, CreditSights said Wynn Macau’s second-quarter performance should benefit from ‘higher drops YoY‘ during the Labor Day holiday period, alongside additional contribution from the Chairman’s Club, which opened in 2026.
The firm nevertheless maintained a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year, projecting only a ‘low-single-digit YoY-increase‘ in both revenue and EBITDA for FY26. CreditSights said its forecast was based on assumptions of low-single-digit growth in Macau-wide gross gaming revenue and stable market share for Wynn Macau.
‘While management acknowledged the competitive environment, as premium demand continues to drive the Macau gaming market, the company aims to stay disciplined with its reinvestment,‘ CreditSights wrote.
The report noted that margins are expected to remain steady despite increased operating expenses tied to new amenities and ongoing investment projects. CreditSights added that the company’s higher capital expenditure plans for FY26 are likely to offset some EBITDA growth and weigh on free cash flow, although free cash flow is still expected to remain positive.
Market share edges higher
CreditSights estimated Wynn Macau’s market share improved slightly to 12.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 12.3 percent a year earlier and 12.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The research house also noted that Wynn Macau continued to generate positive free cash flow during the quarter, estimating approximately $91 million in free cash flow despite around $91 million in capital expenditure related largely to the Chairman’s Club expansion and hotel room refurbishments.
CreditSights said Wynn Macau’s leverage metrics remained largely unchanged in the first quarter, with gross and net leverage at 5.3x and 4.5x respectively as of March 2026. The company’s total debt stood at $5.8 billion as of March 2026.
The firm maintained its ‘Market perform‘ recommendation on Wynn Macau bonds, while reiterating that MGM China remained its preferred pick among Macau high-yield gaming operators.
