Deutsche Bank estimates that gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau may rise 423 percent yearly in 2Q23, reaching $5.56 billion. The estimated GGR for 2Q23 is still 39 percent lower than the same period in 2019.
At the same time, the analysts downgraded slightly 2023 Macau GGR estimates: from $21.95 billion to $21.47 billion. According to the latest estimate, Deutsche Bank believes that Macau GGR in 2023 could increase 307 percent yearly, with forecast 41 percent lower than pre-COVID levels. This highly contrasts the Macau government’s budgetary predictions for 2023 GGR of MOP$130 billion ($16 billion).
Macau’s (GGR) reached MOP15.6 billion ($1.93 billion) in May, up 5.7 percent from MOP14.72 billion ($1.83 billion) in April. The May result was the highest monthly GGR figure since January 2020, showing Macau’s gaming industry is maintaining its positive momentum after removing most border restrictions early this year.
The research from analyst Carlo Santarelli points out signs of deceleration, as May’s GGR figures showed a 2.3 percent-per-day improvement compared to April. “The +2.3 percent sequential improvement per day implies a modest deceleration in the seasonal sequential trend, as the average sequential uptick in May, relative to April, over the 2012 to 2019 period, was +3.3 percent.”
Deutsche Bank also sees that the Macau gaming industry will not return to 2019 levels within 2024, estimating that for next year Macau’s GGR may reach $27.23 billion, a 27 percent increase compared to 2023, but still 26 percent lower than 2019.
According to official statistics, Macau received over 7.2 million visitors in the first four months of the year. This figure was much higher than the visitor arrivals through the entirety of 2022. Macau only recorded 5.7 million visitors last year, the lowest number of visitor arrivals in 20 years. Macau had over 39.4 million tourist visits in 2019, the highest ever recorded.