Macau’s February gross gaming revenue (GGR) could rise by some 10.5 percent yearly, according to analysis by Seaport Research Partners, with expectations that first quarter GGR could increase by 15.6 percent yearly and rise by 7 percent for the full year.
In a Monday note, Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that ‘2026 growth is supported by easy comps in 1H and continued eased money flows and visa issuance. Any pick-up on overnight base mass will further increase growth, and help share gains from operators with more capacity’.
Umansky notes that there could be a further upwards revision if February results come in ‘stronger than expected’.
Despite remaining concerns about ‘the sustainability of GGR growth and the Chinese economy (along with geopolitical risks’, Umansky notes that gaming valuations, in particular those linked to Macau, ‘remain largely too low, contributing to a continued positive risk/reward positioning’.
The senior analyst furthers that ‘we believe investors are being well compensated to take on China-related risk […] warranting upside’.
While premium play in Macau has been going strong post-COVID, Umansky notes that ‘the base mass segment (especially the overnight base mass casino customer) has remained relatively weaker, although there are some indications that mid- tier play is improving along with the higher end during the summer months’.
The analyst furthers that ‘the key driver of growth in 2026 remains liquidity (along with easy visa policy); as long as the liquidity channels remain open, Macau should continue to meet gaming demand (high-end demand in particular)’.
Seaport has given Las Vegas Sands and Sands China Buy ratings, with Neutral ratings for both MGM and MGM China, Buy ratings for Wynn and Wynn Macau, Melco and Galaxy, while SJM has a Sell rating – being ‘poorly positioned in a very competitive Macau market’.
The legacy gaming operator is expected ‘to be the biggest market share loser in Q4 and lose share in 2026 as the satellite business has now been shut down and Grand Lisboa continues to struggle with share gain’.
