Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is forecast to expand by more than 8 percent in 2025, with analysts pointing to an improving Chinese economy and strong visitation trends as key drivers of the recovery.
Seaport Research Partners projects Macau’s casino GGR to rise 8.9 percent year-on-year in 2025, supported by a stronger second-half performance. Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that growth is expected to reach 13.5 percent in the second half, compared to 4.4 percent in the first six months, citing increased consumer spending power and rising demand from China’s upper middle class.
‘The improvement in China’s economy, especially the upper middle class consumer, is central to driving long-term upward growth in Macau,’ Umansky wrote, adding that stronger consumer confidence and government support measures will continue to bolster demand.
Deutsche Bank offered a similar view, with analyst Steven Pizzella projecting 2025 GGR to total $30.7 billion, an increase of 8.3 percent from a year earlier. He said August’s results, which saw GGR a 12.2 percent year-on-year rise to MOP22.16 billion ($2.77 billion), provided a constructive backdrop for continued growth. Pizzella also forecast Macau’s third-quarter 2025 GGR to reach $8 billion, up 14.9 percent from the prior year.
Seaport’s analysis highlighted that, while premium mass play continues to dominate post-Covid growth, the recovery of overnight base mass visitation remains crucial to sustaining momentum. The report suggested that a stronger Chinese consumer market and easing cross-border travel restrictions could help accelerate this segment in late 2025 and beyond.
Morgan Stanley analysts echoed this optimism, projecting that Macau’s September GGR will increase by 16 percent year-on-year, also implying third-quarter growth of 16 percent. Analyst Praveen K. Choudhary described this as ‘constructive for the industry and a positive sign for earnings momentum in the second half of the year.’
The brokerage added that with three consecutive months of double-digit expansion through August, operational leverage should begin to benefit operators, driving margin expansion and potential upward revisions to earnings forecasts.
Valuation remains attractive
The reports noted that despite Macau gaming stocks rebounding since early 2025, current valuations remain below the 2018–2019 average, suggesting continued upside potential.
Meanwhile, Seaport cautioned that risks remain tied to China’s broader economic trajectory, including the performance of the real estate sector, consumer sentiment, and geopolitical tensions such as trade disputes. However, both brokerages pointed to recent government measures aimed at stimulating consumption as supportive of Macau’s recovery path.
Seaport forecasts further medium-term growth, estimating a 6.5 percent rise in 2026 and 7 percent in 2027. Deutsche Bank sees 2026 GGR expanding 3.6 percent to $31.8 billion, underscoring expectations of steady but moderating growth.
With Macau’s mass-market gaming segment now surpassing pre-pandemic levels and visitation from mainland China continuing to recover, analysts believe the city is positioned to build on its momentum through the remainder of 2025.
‘Premium spend has been a strong driver, but the next leg of growth will come from a recovery in overnight base mass,’ Umansky added. ‘As the Chinese upper middle class continues to see wealth and income gains, Macau will be a key beneficiary.’
Overall, brokerages remain constructive on Macau’s near-term performance, with forecasts pointing to another year of healthy growth in 2025, supported by resilient consumer demand and the gradual normalization of travel.
