The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Macau’s economy will continue to experience strong growth in the near term, citing a forecasted 13.9 percent GDP growth for this year. This growth is driven by further recovery in the gaming sector and a pickup in private investment.
Additionally, the IMF notes that this year’s growth is partly attributable to commitments from gaming concessionaires to invest in non-gaming sectors.
The report also mentions that Macau’s real gross domestic product (GDP) recorded an 80.5 percent increase, ‘recovering much of the decline during the pandemic’.
Last week, a statement from the Macau government revealed that the city’s first-quarter GDP surged by 25.7 percent year-on-year in real terms, buoyed by the robust performance of its gaming service exports.
With the expected return of tourists to Macau, the IMF notes that ‘declining medium-term growth in mainland China and an increase in the expected frequency of extreme climate events could weigh on Macau SAR’s medium-term growth, while a faster-than-expected pace of integration with the Greater Bay Area (GBA) and successful diversification policy efforts could boost growth.’
In the executive board assessment, the IMF mentions that downside risks cloud the outlook. ‘Sharper-than-expected contraction in the mainland’s property sector and higher-for-longer interest rates in the major economies could negatively affect Macau’s financial system and growth.’
Meanwhile, on the upside, ‘a stronger-than-expected recovery of the gaming sector and faster-than-envisaged integration with the GBA could boost growth.’
