S&P Global Ratings said Cambodia-focused casino operator NagaCorp is unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic earnings levels ‘for the time being,‘ despite forecasting modest earnings growth and upgrading the company’s credit rating.
The ratings agency raised NagaCorp’s long-term issuer credit rating to ‘B+’ from ‘B’ while assigning a stable outlook, citing the company’s strengthened balance sheet, low leverage and sizable cash reserves. S&P said it expects NagaCorp’s earnings to grow at an annual rate of 5 percent to 6 percent across 2026 and 2027, supported by steady operations in Cambodia’s gaming market.
‘Despite a notable turnaround in 2025, operations still lag pre-pandemic levels, with a full recovery likely to be protracted,‘ S&P said.
According to the agency, NagaCorp reported revenue of $713 million and EBITDA of $404 million in 2025, representing around 40 percent and 60 percent, respectively, of 2019 levels. In 2019, the company generated revenue of $1.8 billion and EBITDA of $667 million, supported largely by the referral VIP segment, which contributed around 70 percent of gross gaming revenue at the time. S&P said that segment, primarily driven by junkets, is ‘unlikely to return.’
S&P said NagaCorp’s ‘stronger financial position provides a downside cushion,‘ highlighting the company’s low leverage and cash balance of approximately $372 million at the end of 2025. The company also had only a $70 million shareholder loan outstanding, due in May 2026, with S&P forecasting debt-to-EBITDA of around 0.3 times through 2026 and 2027.
The agency nevertheless warned that future capital spending and shareholder returns remain key risks. S&P estimated capital expenditure at about $170 million in 2026, rising to around $380 million in 2027 as development of the proposed Naga3 project progresses. It also estimated annual shareholder returns of between $100 million and $120 million.
S&P said the stable outlook reflects expectations that NagaCorp’s operations will remain steady over the next 12 months due to its ‘entrenched position in the Cambodian gaming industry.‘ It added that aggressive capital spending or shareholder distributions that weaken liquidity or push debt-to-EBITDA above 3 times could pressure the rating.
