Macau’s casino sector is poised for sustained growth through early 2026, with rising gaming revenues, robust mass-market demand, and an undervalued stock landscape creating what J.P. Morgan calls a “long-legged” recovery.
In a recent report the investment bank upgraded industry forecasts for the third time in three months, now projecting gross gaming revenue (GGR) to climb 13 percent year-on-year in the second half of 2025 — a sharp acceleration from the 4 percent growth seen in the first half.
EBITDA of the city’s gaming concessionaires is expected to rise 12 percent in the third quarter and 16 percent in the fourth, outpacing market consensus by about 10 percent.
While China’s broader economy has shown weak consumer trends, the report argues Macau is benefiting from a wealth-driven, high-end clientele.
Gains in equities, cryptocurrencies, and luxury spending have lifted sentiment, aided by the renminbi’s 4 percent appreciation since April. Hong Kong’s liquidity boom, marked by heavily oversubscribed IPOs and falling interbank rates, has also eased access to Hong Kong dollars for premium gamblers.
The bank’s analysts noted that four straight quarters of GGR outperformance and a 60 percent sector stock rally since April have raised fears of a pullback — fears they dismiss.
‘Macau’s up-cycles typically span at least 3–4 quarters… creating a self-reinforcing demand loop’, analysts DS Kim and Selina Li supplemented, forecasting momentum to last ‘through 1Q26E at least’.
The report highlights that mass and slot play remains the primary growth driver, accounting for over 80 percent of sequential GGR gains in the second quarter, compared to just 14 percent from VIP play.
‘High-profile concerts/events provide gamblers a compelling excuse for more frequent trips, boosting Macau’s allure and capturing greater wallet/time share from gamblers and families’, the analysts added.
J.P. Morgan expects the mass segment to reach 127 percent of 2019 levels by 2026, even as VIP recovers to only about a third of pre-pandemic turnover.
Macau’s post-covid momentum in gross gaming revenue surged to a new height in July at MOP22 billion (US$2.6 billion).
