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High-stakes gamblers in Macau unfazed by US-China trade war: Citigroup

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Macau’s premium gaming sector appears resilient despite ongoing US-China trade tensions, according to Citigroup’s latest proprietary table survey conducted by analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.

On-site observations reveal that high-stakes players continue to frequent Macau’s casinos with minimal disruption to their gaming patterns.

The survey findings suggest that concerns about reduced gaming appetite due to geopolitical tensions might be premature. As the analysts note, the situation brings to mind an old Chinese saying: ‘When business is slow, might as well gamble.’

One of the most notable findings is that the US-China trade conflict appears to have minimal impact on players’ choice of gaming venues. US-based operators maintained approximately 60 percent of the premium mass wager market share observed in April 2025, which Citi describes as ‘well within the historical range of the local-US split.’

‘Players’ decision on which casino to go to does not seem to be altered by the trade conflict – they seem to stick with the venue where they feel the most auspicious/comfortable,’ the analysts observed.

On an individual basis, Galaxy led with about 25 percent market share of total wagers observed, while MGM China secured the second position with roughly 23 percent share, boosted by a significant whale sighting.

Premium mass wagers observed during the survey totaled HK$11.1 million ($1.43 million), ‘surprisingly flat’ year-over-year. The number of premium mass players increased 8 percent to 611 compared to April 2024, though the average wager per player decreased slightly to HK$18,139 ($2,337), down 7 percent year-over-year from HK$19,467 ($2,509).

Macau, casino, Gambling

High-roller activity shows resilience

The survey identified 19 ‘whales’ (players betting HK$100,000 or more), slightly higher than the 18 observed in April 2024. These high-rollers wagered a combined HK$4.1 million ($528,600), with an average bet of HK$217,000 ($27,968) per whale, representing a modest 2 percent increase year-over-year.

The ‘Player of the Month’ was spotted at MGM Cotai’s Supreme Room with a HK$4 million ($515,631) chip stack and a HK$1 million ($128,908) wager. This was ‘only the fifth million-dollar whale we ran into since reopening,’ indicates the report. The second-highest bet came from a player at Galaxy Macau’s Horizon Room, who placed a HK$500,000 ($64,454) wager.

Mass market showing some weakness

The survey also found that while the premium segments remained resilient, the average minimum bet for mass baccarat dropped 13 percent year-over-year, suggesting a possible decline in player quality within the grind mass segment.

Among the six casino operators, Sands China recorded the largest year-over-year decrease in average minimum bet, falling 37 percent to HK$1,681 ($217).

Cash availability concerns in Macau may be overblown: analysts

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A recent survey by Citigroup suggests that concerns about Macau police’s recent intensified crackdown on illegal cash exchanges might be exaggerated.

Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that ‘The fact that these wagers happened in front of our eyes suggests that concerns about the Macau police’s recent intensified crackdown on pawn shops that conduct illegal cash exchanges may be overdone (as players are still able to get cash to the gaming tables).’

The comments refer to a criminal case uncovered at the end of last month, in which two illegal money exchange syndicates were dismantled. The groups had been operating through eight jewelry and pawn shops located near Macau’s casinos.

As reported by AGB, the joint operation, conducted in cooperation with mainland Chinese authorities, led to the arrest of 42 individuals, including key ringleaders and syndicate members.

Investigations revealed that the suspects used the businesses as fronts to carry out illicit currency exchanges targeting gamblers through fraudulent transactions. The scheme is believed to have involved nearly HK$800 million ($103 million), generating illegal profits exceeding HK$21 million ($2.7 million).

The case also reportedly involves employees of some casino operators, raising concerns about a potentially broader impact on mass-market wagering.

Melco sees “limited” impact from satellite casino transition

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According to Lawrence Ho, Chairman and CEO of Melco Resorts, the upcoming end of the three-year transition period for satellite casinos will have minimal impact on the industry. 

In a recent interview with local media, Ho stated that Melco is only involved with 15 gaming tables at one casino, and the disposal of these tables “fully respects the government’s opinion.” He believes this change will have “limited impact on the overall industry,” emphasizing alignment with government and national long-term development goals.

When asked about potential impacts from US-China trade tensions, Ho observed that while trade conflicts may cause “certain impacts” on the international economy in the short term, they could present opportunities in the long run. 

Drawing parallels to historical conflicts like the Cold War and World War II, he noted how countries emerged stronger through such challenges. Ho urged Macau and mainland Chinese enterprises to “unite with the party” and support national development, expressing confidence that the nation would reciprocate by supporting business growth.

Meanwhile, Bank of America analysts recently reiterated their Neutral rating on Melco while lowering their price objective to $5.7. 

The analysts, including Karl Choi, Ronald Leung, Eric Du, and Candice Zhang, reduced their forecast for the overall sector’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025 from 2.5 percent growth to flat, and trimmed 2026 expectations from 4 percent to 3 percent growth.

The bank lowered Melco’s FY26 GGR forecast by 2 percent and its FY25-26 EBITDA projections by 1-3 percent. They anticipate “slower deleveraging progress” due to weaker profitability and higher capital expenditure needs in 2025.

While Melco gained market share in 1Q25, rising from 15.3 percent in 4Q24 to nearly 16 percent, analysts expect only minimal growth in market share for the full year.

They forecast Melco’s 2025 GGR to grow by approximately 1 percent compared to flat performance for the sector overall, while EBITDA is expected to decline 3 percent year-on-year, with cash earnings dropping by about 14 percent due to higher-than-expected interest expenses.

Macau CE urges gaming operators to up investments in non-gaming diversification

The post-pandemic recovery of Macau in regards to tourism and gaming has seen a slowdown, and expectations for financial revenue for the current year are not as optimistic as before, warned Macau’s Chief Executive in his first Policy Address.

On Monday, Sam Hou Fai noted that Macau has a micro-economy that is strongly outward-facing and is not immune to the current problems of unilateralism and protectionism occurring in global markets.

The top official says that Macau cannot underestimate the eventual threats and challenges and should be conscious of risks and be on alert to be prepared for any potential threats.

While most of his address was focused on social welfare issues, infrastructure, public administration, growth, education and other factors, the official did underline the importance of the tourism and leisure sector for Macau.

Diversification

In particular focus was the diversification of Macau’s economy, including the 1 + 4 idea, with tourism and gaming making up the primary contributor, supported by other nascent industries.

This includes the adequate investment in non-gaming elements, with the official making specific mention that the government would improve oversight of gaming operators to ensure that they are complying with the specifics set out within their gaming concession contracts.

Aside from current projects, the Chief Executive indicated authorities should orient the concessionaires to invest more resources in industrial projects in Macau and Hengqin, establish evaluative indicators of the efficiency of non-gaming investments, and periodically review the overall situation of their compliance with their concession contracts.

Working together

While the government’s non-gaming focus in regards to gaming operators under the previous administration was to largely require these operators to assume the mantle of Macau’s diversification efforts, the new Chief Executive also indicated that Macau is partnering with the concessionaires in attracting more foreign tourists.

The official highlighted that in order to improve Macau’s standing as an international tourism and leisure center, it would be actively exploring the markets of Northeast Asia Southeast Asia, South Asia and South America. The official noted that economic, commercial, touristic, and cultural delegations of Macau have been created in Southeast and Northeast Asia, and together with the gaming concessionaires they are reinforcing the promotion of Macau to international markets.

This includes expanding flights from the Macau International Airport to regions which do not have direct links to Macau via other regional hubs. In addition, the government plans to continue promotional tourist offerings for foreign visitors via airplane ticket discounts and cross-border transport benefits.

Macau Airport Expansion
Macau Airport Expansion Plan

Authorities are also focusing on creating regional tourism, under the moniker “Tourism+”, via links with Hengqin and cities within the greater Bay Area, as well as Hong Kong, for multi-destination tourism.

In regards to tourism promotion, the official stated that Macau needs to attract more young tourists by creating international events of large scale and partnering with digital influencers, claiming Macau should create the image of an “international city of digital influencers”.

On a separate note, Sam Hou Fai also indicated that contingency plans and coordination for the end of the transition period for Macau’s satellite casinos will happen in the near future. The period ends on December 31st, with many satellite operators worried about the future of their businesses.

Overall, the executive assured that Macau has strong fiscal reserves, as evidenced by the continuation of economic stimulus and social welfare packages and even the increase of the amounts for some of these. The official assures that Macau will continue to prosper and grow, despite mentioning the need to focus on maintaining spending within defined limits and ensuring GDP goals.

Bally’s Corp Chairman had to move on The Star before voluntary administration: Report

The chairman of Bally’s Corporation says that the US-based gaming operator was originally going to wait for Australia’s The Star Group to enter voluntary administration before investing in the company. However, the company was worried the group would be too hard to rescue at that point.

Bally’s chairman Soo Kim told Reuters that the company had been looking at The Star for well over a year, but when it “saw the company start to sell their proverbial furniture, burn the furniture for firewood we decided to move”.

The executive furthered that “given there was a fire sale of assets, there might not be anything left if administration was to come.”

The Star Entertainment Group entered into a AU$300 million ($180.8 million) investment agreement with Bally’s Corporation in early April, with some AU$100 million ($60.4 million) being contributed by The Star majority shareholder, and pokie billionaire Bruce Mathieson.

The investment will be executed through multi-tranche convertible notes and subordinated debt instruments, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. A shareholder vote is scheduled for June.

It leaves Bally’s Corp and the Mathieson family with a majority 56 percent of The Star’s issued capital.

A previous AU$940 million ($593 million) refinancing plan with Salter Brothers Capital (SBC) collapsed prior to The Star’s acceptance of Bally’s proposal.

Prior to the deal, The Star had also negotiated the sale of its 50 percent stake in Queen’s Wharf Brisbane to its Hong Kong-listed joint venture partners in the project: Chow Tai Fook and Far East Consortium.

According to Reuters, Bally’s Corp has applied to the governments and regulators in New South Wales and Queensland – where The Star operates its casinos – for approval.

Kim is also set to join The Star’s board as an observer as the groups await shareholder and regulatory approval.

Kim indicates that the company aims to refocus The Star’s efforts on Australian punters and shift away from foreign VIPs, an essential move in the current financial and regulatory environment.

He also indicated that he was not surprised that a large casino operator such as The Star could reach a state where it required voluntary administration, noting: “For Star to end up near bankruptcy is not uncommon for the industry, it’s a small universe and we are one of the few players who specialise in turnaround casinos, so you can make an assumption that when a casino is in trouble we are shown that opportunity”.

Daily Asia Gaming eBrief: Major reforms transformed the Macau casino industry between 2022-2024

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Good Morning. Cha-cha-cha-cha-changes. The recent reforms in Macau’s regulatory framework, implemented in 2022 and 2024, have corrected significant imbalances in the casino industry that arose from two decades of rapid expansion, as noted by gaming law expert Jorge Godinho. Meanwhile, gaming bonds in the SAR have come under pressure following the announcement of steep reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports by US President Donald Trump. In Singapore, gaming authorities renewed Marina Bay Sands’ casino license for three years after it fulfilled all requirements.

What you need to know


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AGB Intelligence

MACAU

How 2022-2024 reforms corrected Macau’s casino imbalance

The recent overhaul of Macau’s regulatory framework through reforms in 2022 and 2024 has resulted in significant corrections within the casino industry, moving away from the previous unbalanced system that had developed over two decades of rapid expansion, according to gaming law expert Jorge Godinho. His study highlights issues such as an excess of gaming promoters and VIP rooms, alongside a heavy reliance on high-rolling gamblers from mainland China, which was exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic.


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UU Wallet: Bridging traditional finance and Web3 flexibility

UU Wallet unveils comprehensive Digital Finance Solutions at ASEAN Gaming Summit 2025

With a strong focus on security and efficiency, UU Wallet stands out with its instant cryptocurrency exchange capabilities and globally accepted prepaid card, making it a preferred choice for those navigating the complexities of digital finance.


INTELLIGENCE | ASEAN | CAREERS

Mohegan issues $1.2B in notes after losing operational control of INSPIRE

Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority announced the issuance of $1.2 billion in new secured notes, following the recent loss of operational control at its INSPIRE Entertainment Resort in Korea to investment firm Bain Capital.

The company closed a private offering through its wholly-owned subsidiary Mohegan Escrow Issuer, LLC on April 10th, consisting of $750 million in 8.250 percent first priority senior secured notes due 2030 and $450 million in 11.875 percent second priority senior secured notes due 2031.

The proceeds have been placed in escrow, pending several conditions including the consummation of a private exchange with an investor for approximately $226 million of the company’s existing senior unsecured notes. Mohegan also expects to enter into a new five-year $250 million senior secured revolving credit facility with a banking syndicate.

If conditions are met, Mohegan will use the proceeds along with borrowings under the new credit facility and cash on hand to fund the redemption of outstanding secured notes due 2026 and repay loans from its previous revolving credit facility. Should conditions not be met by May 10th, the Escrow Issuer must redeem the notes.

This refinancing comes after Bain Capital assumed operational control of the INSPIRE Entertainment Resort in February. The takeover followed Mohegan’s default on a $275 million Korea Term Loan for the $1.6 billion integrated resort development. While Mohegan had attributed the default to failing to meet financial targets rather than missed payments, negotiations with lenders ultimately broke down.

During Mohegan’s fourth-quarter earnings call, COO Ari Glazer revealed that the company had “received notice from the agent for the lenders to MFGE Korea Ltd, the parent company of INSPIRE, that they have accelerated the HoldCo debt,” with Bain Capital taking “certain remedies including appropriation of the shares of MGE Korea Ltd.”

Despite these challenges, INSPIRE Entertainment Resort, which opened its non-gaming operations in November 2023 and its foreigner-only casino in February 2024, has shown steady improvement with net revenues reaching $63.5 million in the December quarter.

SJM unveils ‘The Adventures of ALICE’ residency show at Grand Lisboa Palace

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SJM Resorts (SJM) has unveiled its latest residency show, The Adventures of ALICE @ Grand Lisboa Palace Resort Macau. This captivating production, created in collaboration with the renowned Hong Kong Ballet (HKB) and its Artistic Director Septime Webre, serves as a prelude to an exciting lineup of residency shows set to debut in the Summer of 2025.

The first run of The Adventures of ALICE @ Grand Lisboa Palace Resort Macau will take place on designated dates. All shows are complimentary and open to the public: 

  • APRIL 2025: 12, 13, 18, 19 & 20
  • MAY 2025: 2, 3 & 4

SJM debuts an inspired version specially for Macau, set against the fully immersive 360-degree stage in the 1st floor Atrium of Grand Lisboa Palace, enhanced with state-of-the-art lighting, surround sound, and projection effects. The performance invites audiences of all ages to step into a richly imagined fantasy world.

SJM Resorts unveils 'The Adventures of ALICE' residency show at Grand Lisboa Palace
The Adventures of ALICE performance @ the 360-degree stage in the 1st floor Atrium of the Grand Lisboa Palace Resort Macau

The first run in the series includes two performances on each of the eight selected days, all open for the public to enjoy. After each show, Alice and her friends will greet guests for photo opportunities, creating unforgettable moments for all.

Specially choreographed and directed by Webre, the production features a lively new score by composer Ng Cheuk-yin, striking costumes designed by Liz Vandal of Cirque du Soleil fame, ingenious stage effects, and intimate audience engagement. Performed by an ensemble of HKB dancers alongside talents from Macau and the Greater Bay Area, the show draws audiences into Alice’s magical dreamscape.

The production is inspired by Webre’s acclaimed 2018 ballet “ALICE (in wonderland),” which garnered praise and captivated audiences in every performance. Since its debut in Hong Kong, it has been invited to perform in Beijing, Singapore, and the United States.

Ms. Daisy Ho, Managing Director of SJM, remarked: “SJM is committed to cultivating Macau’s arts and cultural ecosystem. This new residency venue offers a valuable stage for local performers while fostering exchanges with leading international production teams—raising the calibre of local talents and reinforcing Macau’s positioning as a ‘City of Performing Arts.’ Presented in an engaging, community-oriented format, this production brings art closer to the people. It adds a fresh dimension to family-friendly entertainment in the city and enhances Macau’s appeal as a World Centre of Tourism and Leisure.” 

To support the launch of this residency production, SJM conducted multiple open auditions earlier this year to recruit passionate dancers from Macau and the surrounding Greater Bay Area. The initiative not only provides professional training, performance experience, and skill development for aspiring artists, but also nurtures new talents for the region’s ballet scene, further contributing to the area’s cultural vitality. More residency shows are in the pipeline as part of SJM’s ongoing efforts to expand performance platforms and enrich Macau’s cultural landscape.

Embark on a magical adventure amidst the resort, where the mesmerising world is brought to life with Alice’s Dream Wonderland at the Catwalk Garden on Level 1 retail area.

Explore the maze and the picturesque outdoor Jardim Secreto with Alice’s Enchanted Garden installations, open to public on the Level 3 of Grand Lisboa Palace.

From now until 30 June, indulge in Alice-inspired pastries and beverages at the GLP Lobby Lounge. Whimsical characters like Alice and the Queen of Hearts will make special appearances throughout the resort and interact with guests with joyous parades. Guests can also craft treasured keepsakes at GLP Arte to create unforgettable memories. 

PAGCOR contributes Php90M for an advanced dialysis center in Pampanga

On April 11, the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) partnered with the Provincial Government of Pampanga to inaugurate the Pampanga Provincial Dialysis Center I, marking a significant step forward in enhancing accessible healthcare services for the province’s residents.

PAGCOR donated over Php90 million for the project to procure 40 dialysis machines and a CT scan unit. The center is expected to serve thousands of patients who otherwise would have to travel far or incur big expenses for dialysis sessions.

During the inauguration, PAGCOR Chairman Alejandro H. Tengco emphasized that the center is not just a response to the medical needs of dialysis patients but is a symbol of government care and compassion.

PAGCOR contributes Php90M for an advanced dialysis center in Pampanga
PAGCOR Chairman and CEO Alejandro Tengco graced the inauguration of the first Pampanga Provincial Dialysis Center in Guagua.

“We know how expensive and exhausting dialysis treatment can be – not just financially but physically, mentally and emotionally, kung kaya’t ang pagkakaroon ng ganitong pasilidad sa lalawigan ay napakahalaga,”… “Ang mga kagamitang ito ay simbolo ng malasakit ng ating pamahalaan sa mga pasyenteng lumalaban sa hamon ng karamdaman araw-araw,” mentioned Chairman Tengco

Mr. Tengco also lauded the medical staff who will run the facility, calling them the “nation’s true heroes” for their dedication and compassion. “This is what nation-building looks like—projects that directly touch lives and strengthen communities,” noting that the center aligns with President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s push for better health services, especially in underserved areas.

PAGCOR contributes Php90M for an advanced dialysis center in Pampanga
Chairman Tengco expresses his gratitude to the hardworking medical frontliners during the inauguration of the Pampanga Provincial Medical Center I at the Diosdado Macapagal Memorial Hospital in Guagua, Pampanga.

Pampanga Governor Dennis Pineda, meanwhile, expressed gratitude to PAGCOR and other partners who supported the initiative.

We will make sure na lahat ng mahihirap na Kapampangan na magpapagamot po rito, walang kahit anong pera na ilalabas—kahit isang kusing po,” Pineda said. “Kaya lubos po kaming nagpapasalamat sa lahat ng ahensya ng gobyerno na katuwang namin sa pagsasakatuparan nito.”

The Pampanga Provincial Dialysis Center I is a stand-alone clinic developed under a public-private partnership. In addition to dialysis services, it will also offer nutritional counseling, social work support, and patient education to meet the broader needs of patients and their families.

2022-2024 reforms corrected Macau’s casino industry imbalance: Expert

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The new regulatory framework overhaul that was implemented through reforms in 2022 and 2024 led to “major corrections” in the Macau casino industry rather than routine updates, aimed at fixing what had become a dangerously unbalanced system after two decades of breakneck expansion, gaming law expert Jorge Godinho argues in a recent study.

“There were too many gaming promoters and VIP rooms, too much credit for gaming, and too much money moving out of China,” Godinho writes in his study, The Macau SAR Regulation of Casino Gaming: Structural Features After the Reforms of 2022–2024.

Jorge Godinho
Jorge Godinho, Gaming Law Expert

“Numerous casinos were built, but not that many non-gaming services were developed.”

The reforms come after years of unsustainable growth, followed by sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. The gaming industry peaked in 2013/14 but entered what Godinho describes as “a bumpy ride that became a freefall.”

Macau’s reliance on high-rolling VIP gamblers—many from mainland China—exposed vulnerabilities that the pandemic brought into sharp relief.

The post-2022 model is rooted in 10 core features, all of which are now formally embedded in law and practice.

First, the private sector continues to operate casino gaming, but only under concession contracts concluded with the Macau SAR Government. “The operation of gaming services is not a free or open economic activity,” Godinho notes. “It is reserved for the Macau SAR,” though never operated directly by the public sector.

These contracts are always temporary, a key structural principle. While past concessions lasted up to 25 years, the current term is limited to ten, with extensions allowed only in narrowly defined circumstances. “Since 1849, no company has ever held an open-ended authorization to operate games of chance,” Godinho emphasizes.

Macau maintains tight control over market entry through public tenders—rare but decisive moments that determine who can operate in the sector. “There is always a deadline for the expiry of a gaming concession, after which a new concession process must take place,” he writes. Only three tenders have occurred in the last 60 years.

Taxation, too, has evolved. In 1976, Macau shifted to a system based on gross gaming revenue (GGR), which enabled more transparent government oversight. Today, total taxation on GGR stands at 40 percent—a historic high. “The taxation of the GGR is 40 percent—which, of course, is an all-time high,” Godinho points out.

Casinos are now permitted to offer a wide array of games, but Baccarat remains dominant. “Baccarat is by very far the most important and popular since 1976,” Godinho says, noting that it is “the only game played in the VIP market.”

Since 1962, concessionaires have also been required to make significant investments. These obligations have now shifted toward non-gaming projects, such as entertainment, cultural facilities, and health services. “At the time of writing, the investment must be in an extremely broad range of non-gaming activities,” Godinho explains.

The competitive landscape has also matured. From a long-standing monopoly under STDM, the market opened in 2002 to three concessionaires, and later to six. That structure continues today, with six active concessionaires.

The VIP gaming promoter downturn

Macau VIP

Gaming promoters—once a powerful force in Macau’s casino economy—have faced tighter regulations.

“The number of licensed gaming promoters is quite low at the moment,” writes Godinho, noting that since 2024, they can no longer grant credit independently, only on behalf of concessionaires. This is a dramatic reversal from earlier years when promoters played a central role in driving VIP traffic.

Another notable change is the integration of national and regional security concerns into gaming regulation.

“Since 2022, national security of the PRC and regional security of the Macau SAR are important objectives that gaming regulation must protect.”

Jorge Godinho

As the industry recovers from pandemic lows, Macau’s government is signaling a shift away from old growth models. The focus now is on a mass-market, tourism-driven model with diversified offerings—a vision long proposed, but only now materializing. “In 2004, it was thought that the mass market would grow fast and reduce the dependence on VIP gaming,” Godinho writes. “But only now that is happening.”

Looking ahead, regulatory enforcement may take center stage. A new gaming crimes law passed in October 2024 introduces criminal penalties for illicit financial movements, suggesting an increasingly strict approach. “There are strong signs of a stricter approach,” says Godinho.