Rather than viewing Thailand’s casino proposal as defeated, a Thai legal expert believes it could be revived by 2026 if political stability is achieved and the Pheu Thai Party forms a coalition government.

In an interview with AGB, a Thai lawyer, who preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the political issue, explained that the future of the gaming industry legalization largely depends on the upcoming prime ministerial election and subsequent coalition formation.

The House of Representatives is expected to elect a new Prime Minister within the coming week or two, following the Constitutional Court’s dismissal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on August 29th.

“The legalization of the gaming industry was initiated by the Pheu Thai Party, which remains its primary advocate,” the lawyer told AGB. “At present, the House of Representatives must elect a new Prime Minister, a process expected to take place within the coming week or two. To assume office, a candidate must secure a majority of parliamentary votes.”

The legal expert expressed cautious optimism about the prospects for casino legalization, contingent on Pheu Thai’s political fortunes. “Should Pheu Thai succeed in forming a coalition, as it did previously, I believe the proposal for legalization could be revived once the political situation stabilizes, potentially as early as next year,” he said.

However, the lawyer warned of significant delays if the current political uncertainty extends into a national election. “Conversely, if the House of Representatives fails to elect a Prime Minister with a majority, the Cabinet would be dissolved and a nationwide election would need to be called,” he explained.

In such circumstances, the casino bill would face additional hurdles. “All pending bills, including the entertainment complex bill, would lapse unless the newly formed government reintroduces the bill within sixty days of Parliament’s first session following the election,” the legal expert noted. “If there is no reintroduction during this period then it will inevitably delay the process by at least a year, as a new feasibility study would have to be undertaken.”

The casino legalization plans suffered a severe setback following Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s removal from office over ethics violations stemming from a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen. Within hours of the court ruling, Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, a consistent opponent of gaming legalization, declared he had secured enough parliamentary backing to form a new coalition government.

The casino bill had gained momentum under Paetongtarn’s administration despite cultural and legal prohibitions against gambling. The Shinawatra family had publicly championed the legislation as vital to attracting foreign investment and creating jobs in Thailand’s tourism-driven economy. However, the bill scheduled for a vote in July was withdrawn by the Cabinet amid strong public concerns and Paetongtarn’s suspension.

The lawyer emphasized that the initiative’s future hinges on political arithmetic. “In the end, the future of the initiative depends largely on whether Pheu Thai can once again command a majority and form a coalition government,” he said. “If not, I expect significant setbacks for the legalization of the gaming industry in Thailand, unless another party unexpectedly takes up the initiative.”

The legal expert also highlighted the challenging political landscape for casino supporters. “Most major parties continue to oppose the entertainment complex proposal,” he observed.

The setback represents the latest blow to the Shinawatra dynasty’s pro-business gaming reforms, which have faced strong resistance from conservative factions throughout their political careers. Paetongtarn becomes the third family member to see her premiership cut short, following her father Thaksin’s ouster in the 2006 coup and her aunt Yingluck’s dismissal by the Constitutional Court in 2014.

Under an agreement with the People’s Party, which has bolstered Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party in its bid for the premiership, Anutin has pledged to dissolve parliament within four months of delivering his policy statement and call for fresh elections. This suggests that any casino legislation, even if revived, will face significant delays as Thailand heads toward another electoral cycle.