Fitch Ratings on Wednesday affirmed Macau’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘AA’ with a Stable outlook, based on ‘strong public and external finances’ and expectations for continued resilience from mass market gaming.
According to the note, Fitch is forecasting GDP growth to be 4 percent this year, after growing by 4.7 percent in 2025. Expectations are for gross gaming revenue (GGR) to reach 89 percent of the level seen in 2019 this year.
‘We expect gaming tourism growth to slow but remain solid in 2026, supported by favorable visa-entry policies, expanded cultural and entertainment offerings, and continued non-gaming investments’, highlighted the group.
Premium mass resilience
Assuming that visitation continues at current levels, the analysts opine that Macau’s mass market gaming, ‘particularly the premium mass segment […] will remain relatively resilient in 2026’.
The analysts note that Macau saw mass GGR exceed 2019 levels by ‘about 14 percent’, supported by record-high tourism of over 40 million. ‘VIP gaming gained more traction in 2H25 amid continued restructuring of junket operations and the closure of satellite casinos, although VIP GGR remained roughly half of its 2019 level,’ noted the report.
Gaming-dependent but fiscally sound
Estimates are for a budget surplus of ‘about 5 percent of GDP in 2026’ and 5.2 percent in 2027, following an estimated 4.7 percent in 2025.
‘This reflects our expectation that gaming tax revenue, accounting for more than 80 percent of total revenue in 2025, will well exceed the government’s conservative target this year, while we expect government spending to remain within budget’.
The group does highlight Macau’s fiscal dependence on gaming, which it notes ‘accounted for 43.3 percent of gross value added in the economy in 2024’.
While the group expects the government will continue its attempts at diversification, ‘human capital constraints and skill mismatches will limit Macau’s ability to build a competitive edge in nascent non-gaming sectors in the near term’.
Other restraints, such as limited additions to hotel capacity and air connectivity ‘will also constrain faster diversification of visitor source markets’.
Healthy fiscal reserves
‘Macau’s external position remains among the strongest of Fitch-rated jurisdictions, providing sizeable buffers against potential external volatility,’ highlight the analysts, expecting a ‘large current account surplus at 33.8 percent of GDP in 2025, thanks to robust gaming and tourism receipts’.
Further expectations for 2026 are for Macau’s net external creditor position ‘to be high at 249 percent of GDP in 2025, with sovereign net foreign assets at around 217 percent of GDP, both well above the projected median for ‘AA’ category peers’.
Last year, foreign exchange reserves increased by 4.2 percent to $30.6 billion ‘and cover more than 4x the territory’s monetary base’.
