Maybank expects Genting Malaysia’s expansion to drive substantial earnings growth, forecasting net profit to peak at MYR1.93 billion ($406 million) in 2030, supported largely by the group’s multi-billion dollar investment in its New York casino operations.
The projection reflects anticipated contributions from Genting New York’s newly secured Class III downstate casino license, which allows full table-game operations for the first time.
More recent analysis from CreditSights, however, outlines a more cautious outlook, emphasizing leverage pressures, rating risks and the low likelihood of a full privatization of Genting Malaysia.
CreditSights — a Fitch Group research unit — noted that Genting Berhad has completed its takeover offer for Genting Malaysia, raising its stake from 50 percent to 73.13 percent but falling short of the 75 percent required for delisting. The firm said it ‘continues to view privatization of Genting Malaysia as unlikely,’ highlighting Malaysian takeover rules that prevent Genting Berhad from acquiring additional voting shares for the next 12 months.
While the stake increase strengthens Genting Berhad’s strategic control, CreditSights warned that the move also heightens the risk of rating actions across the Genting group. It said the higher ownership ‘could drive a meaningful worsening of Genting Berhad’s credit metrics’ as the parent company shoulders Genting Malaysia’s large-scale New York expansion. The firm now anticipates a ‘high rating downgrade risk’ for both Genting Berhad and Genting Malaysia at Moody’s and Fitch, and noted tighter rating headroom at S&P.
Genting New York’s casino license remains the central catalyst behind Maybank’s bullish earnings view. CreditSights said the winning bid includes a MYR25.8 billion ($5.5 billion) expansion slated for 2026–2030 and a MYR2.8 billion ($600 million) upfront license fee. Management expects Genting New York’s gross gaming revenue to ‘more than double beginning FY27’ once Phase 1 is completed in late 2026 or early 2027.
Despite this supportive revenue profile, CreditSights cautioned that the project will be ‘largely debt-funded and front-loaded,’ pushing Genting Malaysia’s net leverage to between 6x and 6.2x by end-FY26 if no Miami asset sale proceeds. It pointed to several potential mitigants, including funding support from Genting Berhad, improved performance at Genting Malaysia’s Malaysian and UK operations, and dividend restraint over the next two to three years.
On December 1st, Genting’s Resorts World New York City secured approval from the state’s Gaming Facility Location Board for its $7.5 billion plan to convert its Queens property into New York City’s first commercial casino. The New York State Gaming Commission has until December 31st to ratify the recommendation, which could allow the venue to launch hundreds of table games by March 2026.
The proposal features a $5.5 billion expansion of the Aqueduct site, including a 500,000-square-foot gaming floor, 2,000 hotel rooms, a 7,000-seat entertainment venue and new public green spaces. State officials estimate the enlarged operation could generate $2.5 billion for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority between 2026 and 2029, in addition to contributions to education and the racing industry.
Resorts World, which currently draws around 5 million visitors annually, intends to hire up to 2,000 employees and has outlined a $2 billion community-benefits package covering housing, infrastructure and a new innovation campus.
