Recent results of PCSO lottery draws have raised questions about fairness but a local mathematician says only an audit can clear cheating claims.
According to Guido David, a mathematician and researcher with the University of the Philippines (UP) Institute of Mathematics and OCTA Research, the likelihood of consecutively securing the jackpot prize in the lotto games run by the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO) is not impossible but exceptionally rare, with very slim chances of it ever occurring.
In a recent interview with DWPM Radyo 630 on January 26, David illustrated a hypothetical scenario where the probability of winning the lotto jackpot diminishes in successive draws. “Let’s say a few hundred thousand bet for the jackpot in every draw. In each draw, the probability of winning is two percent or less. However, in consecutive draws, for example, two draws, it’s two percent times two percent, so it’s only 0.04 percent,” he explained.
As the number of draws increases, David emphasized that the probability continues to decrease significantly. For instance, in 10 consecutive draws, he pointed out that the probability is minuscule. While recognizing that such consecutive wins are “not impossible,” David proposed a cautious approach, suggesting a focus on auditing processes rather than relying solely on statistical analysis to investigate any anomalies.
“Statistics will never prove that there is something different in the process, so they need to audit to look at the processes if there is a fair draw,” David said. He also shared specific probabilities, stating that the chance of winning the jackpot prize stands at one in 5 million for the 6/42 draw, one in 14 million for the 6/49 draw, and one in 29 million for the 6/55 draw.
