Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to increase by 15 percent year-on-year in the second half of 2025, according to a recent research note from Morgan Stanley.
The investment bank also predicts a 12 percent rise for August 2025, reaching approximately MOP20.5 billion ($2.55 billion), driven by consistent monthly growth exceeding 10 percent year-on-year. This positive outlook reflects strong trends in Macau’s gaming industry, including increased visitation and shifting market share among operators.
The analysis, authored by Praveen K. Choudhary, Dan Chee, Monica Dasoju, and Anson Lee, highlights ‘surprising spikes’ in performance metrics. For the first 17 days of August, GGR reached MOP12.1 billion ($1.5 billion), averaging MOP712 million ($88.6 million) per day, supporting the full-month forecast of 12 percent growth. At this level, revenues are expected to cover operational expenses and reinvestment needs, leading to improved margins.
Wynn to benefit, SJM continues to struggle
Morgan Stanley expresses optimism about Wynn Macau, noting its potential to benefit significantly from these trends. The brokerage rates Wynn Macau as “overweight” and identifies it as a preferred stock for the third quarter. Key factors include expectations that Wynn Macau will gain market share in the third quarter after losses in the first half of 2025.
The company announced a first-half 2025 dividend per share of HK$0.185 ($0.024), implying an annualized yield of 5.5 percent—the highest in Macau. The report notes an annual dividend of $250 million, yielding around 6 percent, which could drive a re-rating of the stocl. Historically, high dividend yields have led to higher trading multiples for Wynn Macau.
Additional reasons for favoring Wynn Macau include its projected market share gains, with hold-adjusted EBITDA in June and July tracking at $3.3 million daily, suggesting third-quarter EBITDA of $304 million—35 percent above the second quarter. The stock’s recent underperformance is considered undervalued compared to its 15-year average.
In contrast, SJM Holdings is expected to underperform, with second-quarter 2025 property EBITDA down 11 percent year-on-year and 6 percent below consensus, driven by a loss of over 100 basis points in mass market share. The report anticipates a focus on management changes and market share trends during SJM’s results briefing on August 28th, 2025.
Supporting the broader recovery, Macau’s July 2025 visitation rose 14 percent year-on-year, with mainland Chinese arrivals up 17 percent. Growth from Taiwan and Thailand was notable at 21 percent and 49 percent, respectively, though declines in overnight stays and air arrivals may impact per capita spending.
