Macau’s gaming performance in June has been affected by softer seasonality and likely the football tournament in Europe, according to UBS in its latest market check memo.
Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) averaged MOP514 million ($63.92 million) per day in the last week (June 17th to 23rd), which is nearly 65 percent of the 2Q19 level. Meanwhile, the mass market performance remains strong at 90-95 percent of 2Q19 levels.
These figures represent a further decline from the previous week’s MOP533 million ($66.3 million) per day. In addition to seasonality and Euro 2024 factors, UBS also mentions a lower VIP hold rate.
In its investment memo, UBS notes that month-to-date GGR has fallen to MOP578 million ($71.9 million) per day, down about 11 percent month-on-month, slightly below the June seasonality average of a 9 percent decrease observed from 2015 to 2019.
Breaking down the segments, mass GGR was down 10-12 percent month-on-month, while VIP volume decreased by about 10 percent month-on-month, with a VIP hold rate of 2.6-2.8 percent.
Despite the weakened gaming market in June, hotel booking data show positive momentum for the upcoming summer season. According to data from 33 hotels tracked by UBS, one-month-forward hotel prices have risen for the summer holiday period, reaching HK$3,400 ($435) per night, marking a 4 percent increase week-on-week and a 15 percent increase year-on-year.
Analysts anticipate that visitor growth will be supported by the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) expansion to eight additional cities and increased flight capacity during the summer.
In another investment memo, analysts from Citigroup revise down the June GGR projection from MOP18 billion ($2.24 billion) to MOP17.25 billion ($2.15 billion), effectively implying a MOP564 million ($70.2 million) per day run-rate for the remainder of the month.
Macau’s May GGR hit the highest level since the city’s borders reopened in January 2023. The city’s GGR grew by 29.7 percent year-on-year to MOP20.19 billion ($2.51 billion) in May. These results benefited from the Labor Day holiday period, a five-day public holiday in mainland China. Macau received approximately 605,000 tourists during the holiday.
For the first five months of 2024 combined, GGR amounted to MOP96.06 billion ($11.9 billion), up 47.9 percent year-on-year.
