The biggest near-term risk for Macau is more linked to China’s economic downturn than any geopolitical risks generated by the US-China trade conflict, CBRE analysts defend.
Concerns over potential retaliatory actions against US-based gaming operators in Macau have surfaced in discussions surrounding the latest economic shifts However, CBRE’s latest analysis suggests that such measures would likely be counterproductive, given a potential destabilizing impact on the region.
In the report, CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh note that ‘Macau’s integrated resorts employ 14 percent of the workforce’—a statistic underscoring their vital role in local employment and economic activity.
Rather than direct actions against operators, CBRE highlights the risks posed by macroeconomic policies that could indirectly affect Macau’s gaming industry. ‘Instead, collateral from broader policies like yuan devaluation or capital flow restrictions pose greater risks,’ the report explains.
China’s economic strategy: a double-edged sword for Macau
China’s high savings rate, with personal deposits reaching RMB158.2 trillion ($21.7 trillion) as of February 2025, is said to present both an obstacle and an opportunity for Macau’s gaming sector.
While recent stimulus efforts have encouraged domestic consumption, savings remain elevated at 10.6 percent of GDP—limiting spending potential.
CBRE points out that if China’s export-driven economy were to falter further, Beijing ‘could be motivated to provide additional fiscal stimulus to unlock the mountain of savings and boost domestic spending, which should support Macau’s gaming demand’.
However, trade tensions could still complicate this equation. The announcement of new tariffs on April 2nd has heightened concerns over economic slowdown risks, with CBRE noting that ‘valuation now reflects even greater economic risk, coupled with regulatory concerns’.
The potential devaluation of the yuan or restrictions on capital outflows would further constrain consumer liquidity, potentially dampening Macau’s recovery efforts.
Despite these concerns, CBRE maintains that the gaming sector’s geopolitical risks remain secondary to fundamental economic challenges. The report underscores that ‘the biggest near-term risk for Macau is fundamental rather than political’.
With gross gaming revenue (GGR) posting a mere 0.6 percent year-on-year growth in 1Q25, the industry’s trajectory already showed signs of slowing before the latest tariff developments.
Whether policymakers choose to stimulate domestic spending or tighten fiscal controls will ultimately shape Macau’s future—determining whether the region remains a global gaming hub or faces prolonged uncertainty.
