Macau’s economy contracted by 1.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product declining to MOP99.76 billion ($12.5 billion) in real terms, according to revised figures released by the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC).
The economic downturn followed a period of strong recovery that began in 2023, when the territory’s growth rate gradually slowed from 23.0 percent in the first quarter of 2024 to 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The first quarter output represented 85.2 percent of pre-pandemic levels from the same period in 2019.
Despite the overall decline, exports of gaming services showed resilience with a 1.6 percent year-on-year increase. This positive development contrasted with the broader services sector, where total exports fell by 3.4 percent due to changing visitor consumption patterns and a high comparison base from the previous year.
The tourism sector faced particular challenges as exports of other tourism services dropped by 11.7 percent year-on-year, though they remained 12.7 percent higher than 2019 levels. Visitor arrivals increased by 11.1 percent, but changes in spending patterns and preferences weakened overall visitor expenditure, putting pressure on the local tourism industry.
Merchandise trade also declined, with exports and imports of goods falling by 9.2 percent and 5.1 percent respectively compared to the same quarter last year. The implicit GDP deflator, which measures overall price changes, decreased by 0.5 percent to 99.6.
The Statistics and Census Service attributed the economic contraction to several factors including the relatively high comparison base from the first quarter of 2024, evolving visitor consumption patterns, and broader external challenges. Global economic volatility and uncertainties in China-United States relations have created additional headwinds.
Despite the first-quarter decline, Macau officials maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. The territory’s public finances remain stable, and the economy continues to show an overall recovery trend. Barring major changes in external and internal conditions, authorities expect Macau to avoid a cyclical economic downturn and sustain its recovery momentum throughout the year.
