Citigroup has moderately raised its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in August 2025 to MOP21.75 billion ($2.70 billion), up from its previous estimate of MOP21.50 billion ($2.67 billion), citing sustained player demand despite adverse weather conditions.
The revised forecast represents a 10 percent year-on-year increase and reflects approximately 90 percent of August 2019 levels.
According to Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau, who cited industry sources, Macau’s GGR for the first 17 days of August likely reached MOP12.1 billion ($1.5 billion). The daily run-rate during August 11th–17th averaged MOP729 million ($90.6 million), up 4 percent compared with the first 10 days of the month, when the daily average was around MOP700 million ($87 million). This also represented a 14 percent improvement over the August 2024 average of MOP637 million ($79.2 million) per day.
The upward revision is notable given the challenging weather conditions mid-month. Despite a “black” rain event in Macau last week—when multiple roads were flooded and social media videos showed water streaming onto a major Cotai IR’s gaming floor—gaming activity remained robust. Citigroup said this resilience “attests to players’ passion for gaming.”
Performance was supported by mixed sector dynamics. While VIP volumes declined 2–4 percent month-on-month, mass-market GGR grew 1–2 percent. Additionally, VIP hold rates appeared higher than those recorded in early August, contributing to overall revenue strength.
Choi and Chau attributed the past week’s figures to stronger mass-market volumes and an improved VIP hold rate.
The updated forecast implies that GGR must average MOP689 million ($85.6 million) per day for the remainder of August to meet Citigroup’s revised target. This would place August 2025 at roughly 90 percent of pre-pandemic August 2019 levels, underscoring Macau’s ongoing recovery.
Macau’s gaming sector has demonstrated resilience throughout 2025, with several months outperforming initial forecasts. The sustained performance despite external challenges such as extreme weather highlights strong demand across both the mass and VIP segments.
According to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), Macau’s gaming services revenue increased 9.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. Overall, Macau returned to positive economic growth in 2Q25, fueled by surging visitor arrivals under government-led tourism initiatives and steady private consumption. GDP expanded 5.1 percent year-on-year in real terms to MOP100.39 billion ($12.5 billion), equivalent to 88.8 percent of the same period in 2019.
