Macau’s gaming industry is expected to record a second consecutive month of relatively strong growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR), with July likely to post a year-on-year increase of 12 to 18 percent, according to a recent investment memo from HSBC.
Analysts Charlene Liu and Lauren Cai of HSBC reported that GGR reached MOP9.05 billion ($1.13 billion) in the first 13 days of July. The month-to-date average daily run rate (ADR) stood at MOP696 million ($87 million), just 1 percent lower than the full-month average recorded in June, and 17 percent higher than the same period in 2024.
Despite a minor week-on-week decline in the past seven days—down 5 percent to MOP678 million ($85 million)—the overall momentum in July remains solid. The short-term dip was partially attributed to a lower VIP win rate, which dropped slightly to 3.2 to 3.4 percent from 3.3 to 3.5 percent in the prior week. HSBC also pointed to a normalization of demand following three weekends of Jacky Cheung concerts, which had temporarily boosted visitation and gaming volumes.
If the remainder of the month tracks an ADR between MOP650 million ($81 million) and MOP720 million ($90 million), HSBC estimates that full-month GGR will reach between MOP20.8 billion ($2.60 billion) and MOP22 billion ($2.75 billion). This would represent a 12 to 18 percent increase compared to July 2024, following the 19 percent year-on-year gain recorded in June.
On a segment basis, mass gaming ADR showed a modest improvement of up to 3 percent month-on-month, compared to a 2 to 4 percent increase in the previous week. VIP volume remained largely stable on a monthly basis, reinforcing the current trend of mass-led growth in Macau’s gaming recovery.
Crackdown on illegal money exchange shows muted impact
HSBC analysts continue to monitor developments on the regulatory front, particularly the Macau government’s ongoing crackdown on illegal money exchange activities. On July 11th, local authorities disclosed that gaming-related crime cases surged by 63 percent year-on-year in the first five months of 2025. The increase was attributed to enhanced enforcement efforts targeting unauthorized currency exchange services, which have been deemed a criminal offense under the Law to Combat Gambling Crimes since October 2024.
However, HSBC believes these regulatory efforts have not significantly disrupted gaming demand. ‘Recent improvement in GGR could suggest that ongoing crackdown may have a muted impact on demand, given that legal money exchange arrangements remain intact,’ wrote Liu and Cai in the memo.
HSBC maintains bullish stance on key operators
Against this backdrop, HSBC reiterated its positive stance on key operators, maintaining a “Buy” rating on both Galaxy Entertainment Group and MGM China. The bank left its target prices unchanged, citing specific growth drivers for each company.
Galaxy is expected to attract high-end customers with the opening of its Capella Hotel and a robust lineup of events. HSBC believes the continued ramp-up of Galaxy’s Phase 3 development will contribute to market share gains, especially if overall market growth exceeds current expectations.
MGM China also remains one of HSBC’s top picks. The analysts highlighted the company’s potential for accelerated growth in the second half of 2025, supported by a low base of comparison and the addition of new capacity.
Overall, HSBC maintains a broadly optimistic view of Macau’s gaming sector, suggesting that the current recovery trajectory—driven primarily by mass gaming and stable visitation—could continue if external demand factors remain favorable and regulatory enforcement does not disrupt legitimate operations.
