UBS has lowered its earnings outlook for Macau’s gaming industry in 2026, citing rising operating costs, while maintaining expectations for moderate growth in gaming revenue for the full year.
In a research report published on March 9th, UBS analysts Angus Chan, Perry Yeung, Ryan Lau, Samuel Yip, and Robin Farley said they had trimmed their 2026 EBITDA estimates for Macau operators by around 2 percent due to higher operating expenses recorded in 4Q25, which have slightly weighed on profitability expectations for the sector heading into 2026.
Despite the downward revision, UBS remains broadly positive on Macau’s gaming outlook and expects the industry to continue expanding in 2026.
The brokerage forecasts Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow around 5 percent year-on-year in 2026, with growth expected to be front-loaded in the first half of the year.
According to the report, revenue growth in the first half of 2026 could reach about 8 percent year-on-year, due to favorable comparison bases, before moderating to roughly 3 percent growth in the second half.
Overall profitability for the sector is still expected to improve modestly. UBS projects sector-wide luck-adjusted EBITDA to increase approximately 6 percent year-on-year in 2026, compared with largely flat performance in 2025.
The report notes that margins are likely to remain broadly stable as operators shift their focus from property upgrades toward cost control and reinvestment optimization. UBS added that a ‘stabilized competitive environment’ and increased emphasis on operational efficiency could help support profitability across Macau’s gaming operators.
UBS analysts also highlighted continued demand momentum in the market, pointing to solid early-year gaming performance. ‘Gaming demand has remained solid in early 2026’, the report indicated, noting that combined GGR for January and February was up about 14 percent year-on-year, slightly above market expectations.
The brokerage added that growth in premium gaming segments is expected to remain a key driver of revenue expansion, supported by expanded marketing initiatives, upgraded suite offerings, and new hotel capacity coming online across several integrated resorts.
