Macau’s gaming industry is poised for robust growth in 2025, with reduced constraints on moving money into the territory identified as ‘the strongest factor’ driving gross gaming revenue (GGR), according to an investment memo from Seaport Research Partners.
The research firm forecasts Macau GGR will grow 8.7 percent in US dollar terms (8.4 percent in MOP) for 2025, with particularly strong performance expected in the fourth quarter at 12.4 percent growth compared to 8.3 percent in the first half.
For October specifically, Seaport estimates GGR will increase 13 percent year-over-year and 28 percent month-over-month, following September’s typhoon-impacted results.
‘The strong growth seen during the summer has been driven largely by the higher-end (both VIP and premium mass) as high-end players face easier visa protocols and less constraints on moving money into Macau (the strongest factor)’, the report states.
September’s GGR grew just 6 percent year-over-year to MOP18.3 billion ($2.28 billion), significantly below the forecasted low double-digit growth, after a major typhoon disrupted visitation and spending. Seaport Research estimates the typhoon likely impacted growth by approximately 6-7 percentage points, with growth of 12-13 percent expected under normal conditions.
Year-to-date through September, Macau’s GGR stands at 82 percent of 2019 levels and up 7.1 percent year-over-year. Mass gaming revenue has recovered to approximately 118 percent of 2019 levels, while VIP gaming remains at roughly 28 percent. Within the mass segment, premium play has surged over 40 percent above 2019 levels, though base mass—particularly overnight base mass customers—continues to lag, approximately 5 percent below pre-pandemic figures.
The research highlights that liquidity channels remaining open represents the critical growth driver. ‘As long as the liquidity channels remain open, Macau will continue to meet gaming demand (high-end demand in particular),’ Seaport Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote.
Beyond 2025, Seaport forecasts 7 percent annual growth for 2026-2027, supported by improving hotel occupancy, stronger base mass recovery, continued easing of money flows, and growing consumer confidence. Additional catalysts include robust visa issuance, ongoing entertainment events, and potential benefits from any US-China trade agreement that could further boost consumer confidence and travel to Macau.
The firm notes that while Macau stocks have rebounded significantly from early April lows, valuations remain attractive.
Despite the positive outlook, risks remain, including potential constraints on money movement, weakening of the Chinese economy, and any large-scale liquidity restrictions that could hamper high-end gaming spend.
