Around 20 percent of all mass market revenue in Asia may flow back to Macau by 2022, Morgan Stanley estimates in a note.

The firm’s analysts say higher travel restrictions could force the Chinese portion of the region’s mass market to choose Macau.

“The pent-up demand is not in our base case, but we have seen luxury retail sales in China rising by more than 35 percent half on half, or 20 percent year-on-year in 2H20 as locals could not travel overseas for their luxury needs.”

“We expect a similar trend in Macau after the border is fully open,” it said.