The University of Macau (UM) expects Macau’s GDP to grow by between 20.5 and 44.1 percent in 2023, should annual tourist numbers surge back to 6.95 million (70 percent of 2019 levels) in Q3 and 7.65 million (80 percent of 2019 levels) in Q4 at the best scenario.
However, UM’s research is based on two different scenarios, and the research team estimates that in the worst-case scenario, arrivals could drop to a level at only 30 percent to 35 percent of pre-pandemic figures for 2H23.
The report calls attention to “the willingness of foreigners to visit Macau,” the local government is working to lure more international visitors in order to reduce its dependence on mainland China visitors.
According to official statistics, of the 9,436,215 visitors recorded from January to May, 96.2 percent came from mainland China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan, leaving just 3.8 percent from other places.
The report also indicates that Hong Kong visitor arrivals have recovered to 90.2 percent of 2019 levels. The calculation is based on January to April data, while the mainland China visitor arrivals only recovered to 47.3 percent of pre-COVID levels.
Researchers from UM note that there would still “be many challenges on the road to economic recovery.” In particular, the labor shortage “will hinder the growth of tourism-related industries.”
According to figures released by the Labor Affairs Bureau, Macau approved 3,306 non-resident workers in May. The total number of non-resident workers rose to 161,508, up 2.1 percent monthly.
Since lifting COVID-related travel restrictions in January, the number of non-resident workers has gradually increased. However, the current figures remain significantly below the pre-pandemic peak of 196,538, recorded in December 2019.
