Macau’s economy shows mixed signals, as tourism and gaming sectors hold steady, but global headwinds and domestic weaknesses raise concerns, according to a local think tank.
The Macau Economic Association (MEA) has released its latest economic climate index, revealing a stable yet uneven recovery, with key sectors showing resilience while other indicators point to underlying vulnerabilities.
Between April and May, Macau maintained an average of 100,000 daily tourist arrivals, boosting hotel occupancy rates to ‘overheated’ levels. The gaming sector also performed steadily, with average daily gross gaming revenue reaching MOP629 million ($75.6 million) in April and MOP684 million ($82.1 million) in May—figures in line with market expectations.
The local government recently revised downward its 2025 GGR estimates by MOP12 billion ($1.5 billion) to MOP228 billion ($28.5 billion), or a monthly average of MOP19 billion ($2.4 billion), from a previous forecast of MOP240 billion ($30.4 billion), or a monthly average of MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion).
‘Furthermore, with several satellite casinos set to cease operations by the end of this year, some local communities may face significant pressure on commercial vitality. Recent indicators such as the unemployment rate and employment numbers suggest a slight resurgence in job market pressure, with subtle signs of change in the labor market, the report noted.
The city’s once-sprawling network of satellite casinos—privately owned venues operating under the licenses of the six main gaming concessionaires—has been gradually winding down since regulatory changes took effect in 2022.
At least nine of the city’s 11 satellite casinos are expected to cease operations by December 31st, marking the end of the three-year grace period granted for agreements between gaming venue operators and the concessionaires under which they operated.
Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai also downplayed, in a press conference last Sunday, the impact of the upcoming closure of most satellite casinos on the SAR’s gross domestic product (GDP), noting that these venues contributed just over MOP10 billion ($1.2 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) out of a full-year industry total of more than MOP200 billion ($24.7 billion).
Still, the top official noted that the Government plans to introduce support measures to assist communities and businesses located near satellite casinos facing closure, particularly in the ZAPE and NAPE areas of the Macau peninsula, where several of these venues are set to cease operations by the end of the year.
While unemployment remains stable, recent data hint at emerging pressures in the job market, possibly linked to the gaming sector’s restructuring. The MEA projects Macau’s economic climate index will hover around 5.9 points from June to August, indicating stability but with ‘underlying concerns that cannot be ignored.’
The report highlights growing external risks, with the IMF cutting its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8 percent—the lowest since the pandemic.
The World Bank also downgraded its projection to 2.3 percent, citing trade disputes and weak demand, with the MEA noting that nearly 70 percent of economies worldwide face lowered expectations, raising concerns about spillover effects on Macau’s trade and tourism-dependent economy.
Despite a slight dip in money supply (M2) the association considered that liquidity remained robust at over MOP800 billion ($96 billion).
However, the report noted sluggishness in mainland China’s consumer confidence and weak stock performance among major leisure firms, signaling cautious spending and investment sentiment.
Macau’s real estate market continues to struggle, with the residential property price index dropping to 203.6 points in April—a three-year low—reflecting weak investor confidence. Meanwhile, the loan-to-deposit ratio for local residents fell to 50.9 percent, a decade-low, suggesting high savings but weak borrowing demand, which could hinder economic momentum.
Although overall non-performing loans have declined for three straight months, household bad debts remain stubbornly high. Interbank lending rates (HIBOR & MAIBOR) have eased, improving liquidity, but the MEA warns that the upcoming closure of several satellite casinos by year-end may hurt local business activity in some areas.
