Macau’s economic growth is expected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2026 as gaming activity weakens and interest rates remain elevated, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The forecast, published on July 29th following an IMF Article IV mission, compares with real gross domestic product growth of 4.7 percent in 2025. Macau’s economy expanded by 7.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by gaming and tourism.
However, the IMF said the recovery remained ‘incomplete and uneven’. While visitor arrivals have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, gaming revenue remains 15 percent below its pre-pandemic peak.
The gap was attributed to structural changes in the VIP gaming segment following tighter regulation, stronger enforcement of anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, and shifts in consumer spending patterns.
The IMF expects Macau’s economic growth to ease further to about 3 percent over the medium term, in line with slower projected growth in mainland China and Hong Kong. Increased investment by Macau’s six gaming concessionaires in non-gaming projects is expected to partly offset the slowdown.
The organization also warned that ‘greater competition in the gaming industry’ could weaken tourism and external demand. Geopolitical tensions, financial-market volatility and continued weakness in Macau’s property sector were identified as additional downside risks.
Macau remains heavily dependent on gaming and tourism from mainland China, despite continued efforts to broaden its economy. The government is aiming to increase non-gaming activities to 60 percent of gross domestic product by 2030 under its third five-year economic and social development plan.
The IMF said meeting the target would require greater investment in skills, infrastructure and talent, alongside improvements to the business environment. It also recommended broadening Macau’s non-gaming tax base to reduce the government’s reliance on gaming revenue.
