Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of September has reached approximately MOP12.15 billion ($1.51 billion), according to data from industry sources cited by Citigroup.
Despite this, Citigroup has lowered its forecast for the full month, now projecting September GGR to reach MOP17.0 billion ($2.12 billion), down from an earlier estimate of MOP17.75 billion ($2.21 billion).
The average daily run-rate over the first 22 days was MOP521 million ($64.9 million), a slight decline of 3 percent compared to the previous week’s rate of MOP536 million ($66.8 million).
A notable factor behind this dip is the VIP hold rate, which has been falling for two consecutive weeks. VIP volumes have reportedly dropped 11 to 13 percent month-on-month, while the mass market has also seen a similar decline of 11 to 14 percent month-on-month.
Citigroup suggests that some players may be postponing their trips to Macau until the National Day Golden Week in early October, contributing to a softer-than-expected September performance.
The revised forecast of MOP17.0 billion ($2.12 billion) for September represents a 14 percent year-on-year growth but is only about 77 percent of the levels seen in September 2019.
Citigroup now anticipates an average daily run-rate of MOP606 million ($75.5 million) for the remainder of the month.
As the market gears up for the National Day Golden Week, the recovery of Macau’s gaming sector will depend heavily on whether postponed trips and a weaker VIP hold rate continue to impact performance.
